Lets say historically I win 53.3% of my nba wagers (for example), 51.2% of my soccer wagers, 54.9% of my tennis wagers....
Assuming the variables which I use to select a wager remain constant, could I possibly use those historical rates to calculate my edge in specific sports in order to apply the kelly criterion? or do you believe that historical data is non indicative of future performance?
I know many of you calculate your own price and then compare it to the market price to determine your edge, but that seems too subjective to me, in determining which factors affect the price and by how much requires judgment and I dont believe that with my little laptop and excel spreadsheet I can outperform a harvard guy with a million dollars worth of software and hardware
how do you guys accurately calculate your edge?