Ideas for Basketball Regression Model

[Hankodetanko]

I'm about to start working on a regression model to handicap prop NBA lines. My general thesis is that some of the more obscure and low limit prop NBA lines are not efficient and there could be +EV opportunities. Any ideas on what prop bets to attack? Cheers

[HeeeHAWWWW]

My general thesis is that some of the more obscure and low limit prop NBA lines are not efficient and there could be +EV opportunities.

That's certainly true of props in general, but the problem is they tend to take a lot of time to cap, so you struggle to get a decent number of bets down. On top of that, the juice is high, limits low, and books tend to boot people who hurt them on props.

[yak merchant]

That's certainly true of props in general, but the problem is they tend to take a lot of time to cap, so you struggle to get a decent number of bets down. On top of that, the juice is high, limits low, and books tend to boot people who hurt them on props.

this is why I don't really bother with making a props model. Vegas doesn't really deal props. I can deal with the rest of the list but spending large amounts of time and effort to only have the market go away in short order sounds like zero fun to me.