Beating the current line by 30 cents, Should you middle?

**Cookie Monster** · 07-04-15, 03:19 PM

Take the other side only if it is +EV on itself. Taking a -EV bet just to reduce variance is not recommended, unless the first bet is a huge part of your bankroll.

**capone1899** · 07-04-15, 03:39 PM

Its according to how much you're betting . If you're wagering 100-200 per wager, then I say no. If you're wagering 10000-20000 a bet then its probably worth arbing

**dogman** · 07-12-15, 12:01 PM

I'm a grinder but that being said, I would "Let it Ride. Definitely if you're betting bases all year long. If your only making a few bets and betting a large amount then , maybe.

**ronald** · 07-12-15, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Cookie Monster

Take the other side only if it is +EV on itself. Taking a -EV bet just to reduce variance is not recommended, unless the first bet is a huge part of your bankroll.

This.

**statnerds** · 07-13-15, 09:51 PM

no Arb

ever!!!

**Martinr** · 07-29-15, 09:20 PM

Do one or the other, but have a plan before you go into the bet. In other words don't make a decision based on emotions in the middle of the bet. If you do, you'll probably end up taking negative EV bets in the heat of the moment.
I use an exchange, so i'm always trading in and out of positions, but because I'm on an exchange I'm not paying vig on each side. Commision is only taken out of the net winnings. The vig you'll pay on a live middle with a sportsbook however is more than usual, and it will kill you over time (and it won't take that long). The books love it when players middle on live bets. "CASH OUT!!!" they scream in the ads.
All easier said than done because recreational players usually want to grab the guaranteed profit, especially if the amount is relatively large.
I'd suggest that if someone is risk averse then they are better off not watching a game they're betting on, so as to avoid the temptation to middle when things are looking good.

**statnerds** · 07-29-15, 11:01 PM

allow me to add more meat to my prior suggestions with proper framing...

whose opinion do you value more:

your own (quit now)

or the thousands upon thousands upon thousands of opinions that told you what the fair price (closer) of your wager is (answer is simple now, no?)

**arwar** · 07-30-15, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

no Arb

ever!!!

just curious - why do you say never - it's a real popular play on Europe - theyeven have forums devoted to it. OP send me a PM and i will explain how to scalp (arb) without tipping the book to what you are doing. also 30 cents is a big one. a few years ago i spent several months on 5 different sites just doing baseball. the short story is that if you watch the lines closesly you can make 10% a month on your money. however, most bettors are more interested in hitting the winner (bigger payoff) so 1.5% return is of no interest to them.

**Waterstpub87** · 07-30-15, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by arwar

just curious - why do you say never - it's a real popular play on Europe - theyeven have forums devoted to it. OP send me a PM and i will explain how to scalp (arb) without tipping the book to what you are doing. also 30 cents is a big one. a few years ago i spent several months on 5 different sites just doing baseball. the short story is that if you watch the lines closesly you can make 10% a month on your money. however, most bettors are more interested in hitting the winner (bigger payoff) so 1.5% return is of no interest to them.

Appreciate the offer. Looked into it alittle bit more, if you calculate your hold, it is often more than the arb profit, so they are correct that long term, you will win more not arbing. Does not remove the frustration of getting beat on a game that you destroyed based on line movement, but this is a fact of life.