Originally Posted by
FourLengthsClear
As a simple guide you need a minimum 1.5 points for the middle to have +EV on NBA/NCAAB sides at -110.
As always however, that does not mean that taking the middle when the line moves in your favour is usually not the smart thing to do. The 'rollover' issue doesn't change that.
If you have a situation where the line has moved a full two points from +7.5 to +5.5 and we assume that +5.5 is the fair line. Then your initial bet (at +7.5) has a nominal +EV of around 10%, the second bet (on the other side at -5.5) would have -EV.