Originally Posted by
illfuuptn
Can you please elaborate on this? Shouldn't P(B|A) be the probability he misses the free throw given that he shoots 94%? If so, there is no way to inaccurately estimate that. However, it is definitely possible to make a misestimate of P(A).
As for the formula, wouldn't I just get 50% EVERY time? If I tried to do another update if he makes another free throw, it would be...
.5*.5/[.5*.5+.5*.5]
Can you explain though, because I don't really know what P(~A) and P(B|~A) represent? I just assumed ~A meant the complement of A, but couldn't that also be stated as P(B) in this case? IDK, I'm obviously confused.