[jolmscheid]

What are peoples experience with following opening line moves? For example, if a line opened at -2 and dropped to -1, would following the movement be profitable?

[jolmscheid]

Thanks in advance as always...I look forward to the replies..

[LT Profits]

Just like beating the closing line. If you bet +1 AFTER the move, you'll be close to 50/50.. Key to winning is to beat the move. So do line moves tell you anything? Answer is yes but it's too late to take advantage. (slow moving books anyone?)

[jolmscheid]

Thanks LT..that makes sense..so how does that work in terms of reverse line movement?

[FourLengthsClear]

A bit of homework for yourself might be to look at what happens after the first movement. Is there a tendency for lines to continue to move in the same direction, reverse back or is there no obvious trend/pattern?

[illfuuptn]

^^^

[jolmscheid]

A bit of homework for yourself might be to look at what happens after the first movement. Is there a tendency for lines to continue to move in the same direction, reverse back or is there no obvious trend/pattern?

I think the FIRST movement would indicate sharp money..

[hutennis]

I think the FIRST movement would indicate sharp money...

...50% of the time.

Another 50% is for squares and sharps that are setting up reverse move. LOL

So go ahead, flip yet another coin and pay commission for privilege.

[Masu485]

Does not work long term. My data has it winning but just barely in the past 8 months, and 50/50 before that. Just try to beat the closing line.

[chunk]

IMHO line moves should never factor into your decision making unless you can verify a reason for the move, which in most cases you can't. The only thing you should strive for is the best price possible on a pre-determined play. There are many variations of shenanigans that are moving lines nowadays. Most of this ends up in the 50% graveyard.

[samserif]

A bit of homework for yourself might be to look at what happens after the first movement. Is there a tendency for lines to continue to move in the same direction, reverse back or is there no obvious trend/pattern?

A related question: if closing lines, as a whole, exhibit little bias (i.e., roughly the same number of winners as losers), what about the lines that show a clear trend? Will a line that started at +6/-6 and didn't change have the same distribution of outcomes as a line that started at +8/-8 (or +4/-4) then closed at +6/-6? I think I've seen differences but without running the numbers I'm not confident enough to say.