1. 12-17-11 06:15 PM #1
    strixee
    I think, therefore I win
    strixee's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-31-10
    Posts: 432
    Betpoints: 1

    Bet against a model with highly negative hit percentage?

    I have back-tested my model and found when my line differs by 8+ points from Pinnacle line, I'd be hitting at least 55%.
    What's more interesting however, is that if I'm within 4 points from Pinny, I'd be hitting under 45%. Is it wise not only bet when I have an edge, but also fade my model when my "edge" is clearly negative?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 12-17-11 06:44 PM #2
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,808
    Betpoints: 508

    Your model is badly flawed if you are having that sort of differential. You should never be seeing an 8 point differential.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 12-17-11 08:59 PM #3
    Lockitup1x
    Lockitup1x's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-21-09
    Posts: 1,010
    Betpoints: 1

    No.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 12-18-11 12:11 AM #4
    roasthawg
    roasthawg's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-07
    Posts: 2,990
    Betpoints: 1

    In all likelihood it's a bad model... don't bet it either way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 12-18-11 12:26 AM #5
    InTheRed
    InTheRed's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-25-09
    Posts: 455
    Betpoints: 17656

    I disagree with everyone here.

    Assuming you have extensive backtesting and you have over 1000 system plays, if it is consistently hitting at those ratios, i would bet the big ones and fade the small ones.

    In my O/u NBA system, I am accounting for many different variables in pt differentials and scenarios. If they are hitting, they're hitting.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 12-18-11 08:03 AM #6
    u21c3f6
    u21c3f6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-17-09
    Posts: 790
    Betpoints: 5198

    Quote Originally Posted by strixee View Post
    I have back-tested my model and found when my line differs by 8+ points from Pinnacle line, I'd be hitting at least 55%.
    What's more interesting however, is that if I'm within 4 points from Pinny, I'd be hitting under 45%. Is it wise not only bet when I have an edge, but also fade my model when my "edge" is clearly negative?
    Absolutely, assuming it is not data-mined.

    Start small to confirm your results and increase (not more than Kelly) as your results prove profitable.

    Joe.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 12-18-11 09:13 AM #7
    Wrecktangle
    Wrecktangle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-09
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 3209

    I agree with the model faders; not the same as fading a human who will change criteria to try to win.

    But you have more work to do, you need to figure out what is the root cause and get it positive. Running "Black Boxes" will crash your BR eventually. You must understand what factors are causing the problem to better understand the stats behind the sport.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 12-18-11 03:16 PM #8
    strixee
    I think, therefore I win
    strixee's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-31-10
    Posts: 432
    Betpoints: 1

    But you have more work to do, you need to figure out what is the root cause and get it positive. Running "Black Boxes" will crash your BR eventually. You must understand what factors are causing the problem to better understand the stats behind the sport.
    Good answer, I'll be thinking more about the model.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »