[jolmscheid]

Hey guys...I am just wondering if I am using the Spread / ML converter correctly. So for example, if Pinny has a college basketball spread of -10 / -103 for the fave and +10 / -107 for the dog, and I enter that in, the moneyline odds would be -877 for the fave and +689 for the dog. Now if I see that a different book is offering the fav. moneyline for -550, this shows that I would have a 3.5% edge on taking the favorite on the moneyline.

Is that right? Am I doing it correctly?

[jolmscheid]

Thanks in advance for any insight offered..

[LT Profits]

Sounds good in theory, but if you find a -550/+689 scalp, please let me know.

[jolmscheid]

Sounds good in theory, but if you find a -550/+689 scalp, please let me know.

So are you saying that the spread / ML converter is not accurate? Thanks for the help LT

[FourLengthsClear]

I assume this is using the half-point calculator?

If so, be careful. The push probability data is out of date and, IMHO, flawed.

[jolmscheid]

I assume this is using the half-point calculator?

If so, be careful. The push probability data is out of date and, IMHO, flawed.

No...I am using this: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

I have been looking at buying 3 points in basketball for -170 odds as well using the 1/2 point calculator...but if it is flawed, then I don't know..

[brh75]

hay rooom

[uva3021]

A = Total/2-LineA/2
B = Total/2-LineB/2

A^10/(A^10 + B^10)

[FourLengthsClear]

No...I am using this: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...-ml-converter/

I have been looking at buying 3 points in basketball for -170 odds as well using the 1/2 point calculator...but if it is flawed, then I don't know..

OK. I see that this calculator produces the same results as the Half Point Calculator and as such is based on the same data.

[jolmscheid]

So what's the consensus then here...are these tools not worthy of use?

[135steward]

Do these tools take into account the scoring capacity of the teams? For example, a 10 point spread is less likely in a game where the scoring will be in the 50s-40s range than when a 70s-80s range is more likely. Do the converters take the likely totals into account?

[FourLengthsClear]

So what's the consensus then here...are these tools not worthy of use?

They are a good starting point for learning about the value of half-points.

For 'accurate' pricing though, the push probabilities you use have to be:

a) Up to date
b) Filtered according the market spread
c) Filtered according to the market total

[LT Profits]

So are you saying that the spread / ML converter is not accurate? Thanks for the help LT

No, what I meant was that IF the +689 is accurate, the chances of finding a place that has -550 are miniscule.

[jolmscheid]

No, what I meant was that IF the +689 is accurate, the chances of finding a place that has -550 are miniscule.

Thank you...but IF one is to use the converter, is it pretty accurate? And the same with the 1/2 point calculator and buying 3 points on single-digit spreads?

[LT Profits]

Close enough but not perfect for two reasons. 1) not updated for what, a couple of years? and 2) no consideration is given to game totals, as FourLengthsClear just pointed out and others have in past threads also. That said, it is still probably the best tool of its kind around and it is a nice starting point. Just remember when using the half-point calculator to only measure half-point at a time. If you want to measure a full-point or more, keep re-inputting in half-point increments. For example, let's say you wanted to measure the value of a FULL point between +6 and +7. You enter +6 and I believe the screen displays a radius of 4 to 8? Anyhow, only look at the edge gained to +6.5, THEN re-enter +6.5 to find the gain to +7. Adding the two edges give a more accurate read than taking the full-point for +6 to +7 on original screen. The difference may be small at one point, but remember that the calculator becomes less accurate the further away you go from the original input.

[FourLengthsClear]

Do these tools take into account the scoring capacity of the teams? For example, a 10 point spread is less likely in a game where the scoring will be in the 50s-40s range than when a 70s-80s range is more likely. Do the converters take the likely totals into account?

No, they don't.

[jolmscheid]

Ill see if I can come up with a real example would appreciate the insight on whether or not it truly is +EV or not...

[Justin7]

If an NCAAB spread to moneyline converter ignores the game total, it will frequently be wrong.

[jolmscheid]

If an NCAAB spread to moneyline converter ignores the game total, it will frequently be wrong.

Then why do we have these tools in the first place without totals?

[jolmscheid]

Close enough but not perfect for two reasons. 1) not updated for what, a couple of years? and 2) no consideration is given to game totals, as FourLengthsClear just pointed out and others have in past threads also. That said, it is still probably the best tool of its kind around and it is a nice starting point. Just remember when using the half-point calculator to only measure half-point at a time. If you want to measure a full-point or more, keep re-inputting in half-point increments. For example, let's say you wanted to measure the value of a FULL point between +6 and +7. You enter +6 and I believe the screen displays a radius of 4 to 8? Anyhow, only look at the edge gained to +6.5, THEN re-enter +6.5 to find the gain to +7. Adding the two edges give a more accurate read than taking the full-point for +6 to +7 on original screen. The difference may be small at one point, but remember that the calculator becomes less accurate the further away you go from the original input.

Thanks LT...ill look at what the edge would be by looking at half-point increments....and I believe you stated before that it is smarter to stick to single-digit spreads??

[LT Profits]

Thanks LT...ill look at what the edge would be by looking at half-point increments....and I believe you stated before that it is smarter to stick to single-digit spreads??

Yes if 10 cents per half-point.. If you play somewhere with a dropdown box where the charge is less than 10 cents, I suppose if wouldn't hurt to check calc.

[jolmscheid]

OK so for example using the Moneyline converter, today in College basketball, Pinny has Cincinnati at -5 / -107 and Wright State +5 / -103....so entering this into the converter, I get favorite odds of -236.8 and dog odds of +211.3.....I could get the moneyline on Cincinnati for -210 which equates to a 1.32% edge according to the converter. So since the converter does not take the total into account, is this edge way off?

[jolmscheid]

And for the 1/2 point calculator if I am looking at each half point seperately, is this correct?

Pinny had a line of +2 / -2 and at a different book, one could get -2.5 / +2.5

Now I entered in the lines for each half point into the calculator and these were the edges:

+2.5 = -1.68%
+3 = -.96%
+3.5 = -.62%
+4 = .47%
+4.5 = .55%
+5 = 2.07%
+5.5 = 2.09%

Now would I add all of these numbers up to determine if there is indeed an edge at buying 3 points for -170?