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Live Betting Strategy
While not very analytical in nature, I hope you'll find some value from this post. The below are excerpts from a tutorial I wrote specifically for live betting.
From "Live Betting: A Sports Betting Tutorial":
"Lesson Three: Step #1. Find Games where your Retrieval of Information is Faster than that of the Sportsbook.
Not all television broadcasts are created equal. Different types of broadcasts have faster feeds to the sports event than others. There are regional broadcasts, national broadcasts, international broadcasts, high definition, regular definition, and time-delays due to over the air regulations. All these factors are in the background of sporting events, but have a real impact on live betting. Are you in the fast lane or the slow lane when it comes to the retrieval of information? The goal is to find a competitive advantage by retrieving the game information faster than the trader at the sportsbook.
The ultimate litmus test is to reference what you see on your television screen against the odds going up/down, opening and closing on the live betting platform. In most cases you will see that they are in simpatico. But be patient and snoop around. There are events out there every day where you have access to the information faster than the sportsbook does.
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Remember, sportsbooks have multiple built-in safety measures to defend against these television delays in live betting. Longer processing times and the capping of max bet wagers just to name a few. Just because you have found a match with a faster feed than that of the sportsbook does not guarantee that you will be profitable, but it is a fantastic first step. Step three explains ways of remaining profitable while not drawing the attention of the sportsbook.
Lesson Four: Step #2. “Tee-up” Events for Quicker Bet Placements.
The second step in our live betting strategy is to learn how to ‘tee-up’ your bets. The theory is simple. Have a bet picked out on the live betting platform. Have a wager typed in. Have your mouse hovered over the ‘place bet’ icon. Then, when the time is right, quickly place your bet and win. Be aware though, some sportsbooks have a one-click confirmation for bets, while others have an additional confirmation stage. Live betting is all about timing. This means being alert and attentive during the entire match, actively monitoring the odds as the events unfold. It is easier said than done, of course, but try to maintain your focus. As you know, split seconds can have a tremendous impact in sports. Opportunities to profit can pass by that quickly too. Be prepared. Have your bets teed-up and be ready to place it when the time comes.
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Take a look at the following example for the importance of teeing-up your bets:
Consider something as simple as a turnover in football. Whether it is an interception or a fumble, the whole momentum of the game swings on these events. A great bet is to tee-up on the defending team to score next. Again, this does not mean placing the bet for the defending team to score next. It does mean, however, that you have selected the defending team to score next event from the live betting options, typed in your wager, and have positioned yourself one-click away from that bet being confirmed by the sportsbook. Teeing-up this bet seems counterintuitive, but when your retrieval of information is faster than that of the sportsbook, and a turnover suddenly occurs, you place your bet. Assuming no penalties or challenge flags reversing the call, the defending team will now have possession of the ball. You have placed your bet at great odds compared to the probability of the event now occurring. It is a tremendous value bet and a great example of the competitive advantages available through live betting.
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Lesson Six: How to Make Money Betting on Football.
Now that we have reviewed the three steps to profitable live betting, let’s examine some specific examples of how to apply these steps to the major sports available.
Football. American Football, that is. After many seasons, I have found some great ways to make money during a live betting match. Remember the three steps to profitable live betting: find events with faster retrieval of information than that of the sportsbook, tee-up events for quick bet placements, and fly under the radar. Also remember that not every match presents an opportunity to succeed. Again, stick to the strategy. If an opportunity does not present itself, then do not bet!
As mentioned earlier, Next Team to Score is an interesting bet if one team pays over +100 to score next. Try placing that bet – Team A next to Score at +100 or greater, as the other team is failing on a third down conversion, throwing a pick or fumble. This means having bets teed-up and ready to place. The goal is to have Team A next to score, paying +100 or more, as the ball is being turned over, or about to be punted, to them. Depending on field position, the odds should swing enough so that Team B will also pay over +100 to score next. It is a great way to scalp profits.
Another bet that is worth pursuing is the next type of score – field goal, touchdown, or other. When in field goal range in long third downs, field goal as the next score is a good bet if it does not look like a conversion is possible.
Have touchdown teed-up when a team is driving, and look to place your bet during a big play or penalty call (such as pass interference) which will result in a lot of yards for the offense. It is not guaranteed that the bet will pay off, but it is a value bet as your team is seizing the momentum.
Some sportsbooks provide the option of betting on whether the next play for the offense will be a run or a pass. This is one of the best examples of the live betting advantage. Will the next play be a run or pass? Recognize formations pre-snap. Understand down and distance and team tendencies. If a team comes out in a wildcat formation, you know it is going to be a run. Regular empty backfield? Pass. Double tight end I-form? Likely run. Being attentive and quick is such a crucial element to success when live betting. You must be able to disseminate the information faster than others. The pass bet is usually divided into complete and incomplete passes. My best advice for completed passes is to look for plays that will result in quick slants, screen plays, and short passes to the running back. Again, you will have to be familiar with the teams tendencies, formations, and down and distance. It takes work and is not easy. It is also not that difficult. If it is an obvious passing play, try the betting combo of complete pass and incomplete pass. They both usually pay well over +100, so it is a good scalping option.
There are also some interesting field position bets out there as well. Where will Team A start their next drive from populates before kickoffs and punts. A hint is to know the wind conditions at the game – for outdoor stadiums, of course. Sportsbooks sometimes forget to adjust for the wind after quarters in their field position bets. Punters and kickers may have been propped up by favorable wind conditions, so make your bets accordingly."
The whole thing is available on Amazon if you're interested -- "Live Betting: A Sports Betting Tutorial". Looking forward to your feedback. Thanks!
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