Earlier this year when the Brock Lesnar/Alistair Overeem fight was annoucned (scheduled for Dec. 30th), I placed a bet on Overeem when the lines were -115 on both sides. I've been checking in a lot, and the line has moved to -170 on bkmkr.
My questions are:
A) Though the market is extremely small ($250 limits up until fight night usually) and the sport is extremely volatile, isn't there a great amount of value in handicapping mma matches? I haven't really found an efficient way to model mma matches, but have been doing well by "fundamentally" analyzing each match (akin to the stock market when using fundamental analysis). It seems to me that by picking the right side (line agreement side) most fights, you are presented with a ton of arbitrage, and usually a straight up win anyways.
B) Is there enough relevant data to create a somewhat "simple" mma predictive model? I have an idea of where I'd like to start...but it comes down to a time commitment and whether it would be worth my time.