[hajune]

Yesterday I talked about the merit of looking at how teams have done recently against the spread. If used properly it will not only make you money but keep money in your pocket.
I will go over part two of my handicapping method sooner then later because it is intertwined with part 1. Not only do I look at how a team has performed in the past ten games but I am interestered to see how a team does when past point spreads are close to today's spread. I am looking for teams that were 2 1/2 points from today's spread. If team a is a 4 point dog I find all games at + 1 1/2 to +6 1/2 that the team has played this year. Team A might be a good spread team overall but falls short at spreads close to today's spread. Team A might have a plus 5 value on their point spread value but when viewing its overall record the team falls short at these particuliar margins. The team might be 8-4 against the spread this year but maybe 0-2 at today's margin. Be careful! Teams are creatures of habit and it might be best to pass the game. On the other hand the team they are playing might show a reverse situation. Team B might not be all that good covering the spread but do wellat today's margins. Again I will likely pass unless other factors are so strong they superceed the usual performance of a team. I pass when a team has played 2 or more games and shows problems at today's spread with the one exception that the other team is even worse at today's spread .
Another point to be made about spreads is that80% of all teams fall into a certain catorgory that is easy to decipher. It is the other 15-20% that present problems. Those teams are streak teams. They either are hot or cold and control the tempo of the spread outcome. Niagara falls into that catorgory this year. They beat up on the spread earlier in the year and now are going backwards. Conventional handicapping tools I use for the 80% do not work for the streaks teams. I advoid those games. There are plenty of opportunities out there.
Getting back to the main subject all 16 day games i played were ok at the spread margin close to the actual spread. I had 3 games I took off my list because they had problems at those spreads or the other team was very god at today's spread. Those 3 games went 1-2.
Also I wrote a piece about teams that are favored by margins they have never experienced. those teams have serious problems covering if the other team has succeeded at today's spread. S Miss was a 14 pont favorite yesterday and have never been close to that spread margin. They played Montana State who was 1-1. S Miss won straight up by 8. That is a common occurence. I have had a perfect season using this tool. it will likely pop up about 10-12 more times and I will be looking for it.
However you handicap that which I posted will likely add value to your winning %
Cheers

[durito]

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[Peep]

Any chance of you keeping all these pearls before us swine in one thread?

[Arilou]

It's not often someone has a theory that I haven't heard a version of before, at least not that I can remember. Hats off to you - even if it doesn't check out I have to admit this part is an interesting concept.

[TPowell]

yeah I check that as well, some teams seem to play well as a big dog and others seem to fold the tent early.