[hajune]

I have a huge data base of basketball games going back 20 years.
I am one that looks for patterns that continue to work over and over again. Just like a good investor in the stock market there are indicators that give clues to where the stock is headed. The same holds true for sports handicapping. I looked for and found repeating patterns that when applied have worked every year with few slumps. As I write this on Sat ,Jan 24th I just experienced about 12 days of breaking even ( 1 game ahead) and my plays did not follow proper protocol from past results. That happens and one must continue until the spell is broken. I will be posting some information in the next few posts of not what to do but what to advoid. When a reporter once asked Earnest Hemmingway the secret of writing good books, he replied that you write down what you want to express and then TAKE AWAY the unwanted like a sculpteror does with his chisel. He at that point is playing great defense. To win championships you better have a good defense or better yet a great one. It is also true when handicapping. Today I had a great day (I will post my plays) and was able to eliminate many losers because there was too much unwanted in their background. I use a basic formula involving 4 "prime patterns" and then start eliminating teams when they do not live up the secondary factors. I actually use 5 secondary factors and will go over them in upcoming posts starting today.
Here is one of them. Never play teams that are doing poorly covering spreads in recent games. You are throwing your money away in the long run. Here is a short cut to what I do. I look at the past 10 spread games the opponents have played. I give double credit to the last 5 games. Thus if a team was 4-1 instead of a 3 game difference it is a 6 game difference. I next take the the other 5 games and add the total. If team a is 2-3 in the bottom 5 games he is 5 + (-1) or 4 games to the good. i compare that ewith the teams opponent. If I liked a teams going in and they fall short of the standard I demand of them they go off the list of teams I will play. Also just as important the team they are playing might be super point spread team. Once again I pass. In the past 12 days though a lot of teams seemed to have not follow protocol involving this handicapping factor. In the long run this rule superceeds the bad spread team plays that occasionally win for a period. As I said I have a 20 year data base that proves it. Just like the stock market there are little pockets of good investing techniques that go against the grain. They do not work for a time That usually is short and few teams and stock change character in the short run. If you like a game look at what they have done recently. Write done the results and you will find that over a sample of 200 games or more you will have done better using this tool. Play only teams if they have done better then their opponent in this 10 game period!
Here are my plays today. I had a great afternoon. Most were posted but some were not. Most of the ones that were not are easy to find because they have a huge edge over their opponent using this wonderful tool. It is the hot vs cold team rule and is very potent! I will give you the difference in each team's last 10 games and their spread difference. I will also be comparing the other 4 secondary factors to these games. You will see why I liked each team in no uncertain terms!!
Akron win difference is +3
Kan win 0
Loy Chic win +3
Citadel win +15 this was a play solely because of the huge difference
Utah lost +4
Memphis win +6
Okla State win -3 Though it was a negative they were very strong in other areas and within reason on this one
West Mich win +9 when a team is at +9 or more that is a huge edge
Lasalle win 0
Okla win +3
FSU win +1
Drexel win +15 that is huge and made this a double strong play
Ark St win +2
Port win -2 but were a positive spread team . hey were 2 less then Pepperdine
Temple win +15 huge they were a
double strong play because of other factors
That is the list of games that are finished. I am 12 -1 so far. What I do is mechanical. There is no guessing or emotion put into handicapping .I will give you more background about these games in following posts. I had a 15-0 day earlier this year using the disciplines I am posting . I eliminated 6 plays using this tool today and added 3 more plays. So far 2 have won. The plays I eliminated went 1-5.
Cheers

[B1GER1C828]

shoulda used paragraphs..after 2nd sentence i just said **** it

i hope its good info

[G's pks]

shoulda used paragraphs..after 2nd sentence i just said **** it

i hope its good info

[hajune]

The infomation is better then good. I challenge anybody to use it. All you have to do is build a foundation on what works in the art/science of handicapping. I scouted basketball for 20+ years and noticed patterns from the teams I scouted, having watched over 1000 games. Those patterns are universal in nature. The same patterns emerged from like teams that I saw in different eras. It finally dawned on me what caused them to occur. Sports is about available energy+ motivation+ stragedy ( coaching). What I have figured out is a team's available energy for the next game is greatly dependent on the last few games and especially the last one. Compound this with who they played and how they played who they played and how they played. What I did not know is that the reverse of what we are lead to beleive is far more likely to the case then conventional wisdom has lead us to believe. It makes pefect sense though when I put it together . This is a big key to being a good handicapper, to know a team's likely energy for the next game. The odd makers do not have a clue to this . They factor motivation and even somewhat coaching ,but do not know when a team will likely play above or below their USUAL norm. I will give some clues to this in later posts. To those who use it all I got to say is that you will never look at a game again in the same way you did in the past. I have explained this to some of my sports friends and the light bulb go's off in their head. They usually say I never thought about that but it is true. One of my fellow scouts I sat with for about 20 years figured it out immediately when I explained it and is now a class one handicapper. He was once a big fish because he viewed what he needed to know in reverse of the likelyhood of what was likely to occur.

[smitch124]

Interesting take Hajune, look forward to your future posts!

[HedgeHog]

Interesting concept, basically betting hot teams versus cold ones. But, it needs a more defined filter with actual ATS records for the 20 years mentioned.

[Arilou]

"Super Point Spread Team" needs to be better defined, since I have no idea what one is, and obviously the idea could be improved by having a gradual falling off of games rather than a 2-1-0 5-5 weighting system which can't possibly be correct for obvious reasons but is clearly being used because it is easier to calculate.

Of course, what HedgeHog says is spot on: You are claiming that teams that have covered recently tend to continue to cover. That to me is not actually handicapping, because you could never use that to tell me what a spread should be other than relative to the line, rather this is finding an angle. Nothing wrong with that if it works, of course! However, betting what are indeed essentially 'hot teams' is unlikely to be a 20-year winning strategy because there are many people who favor hot teams and you would expect them to grow long term to dominate the market if they were strong.