Are there any stats experts here that think regression towards the mean plays a role in handicapping?
I was having a conversation with a friend. I had mentioned that I was on the bears +9 and one reason I was feeling confident is Vick's 0-3 career record vs the bears.
He suggested that based on that 0-3 stat, regression towards the mean would point to Vick getting a W against the bears.
What do you guys think? If you got 2 evenly matched teams, team A is 4-0 against team B the last 4 years. Based strictly on that 4-0 record, and not taking into account other factors influencing your decision, would you be more inclined to lean towards team A or team B?
FYI, in this case we concluded Vick is a statistical anomaly and therefore regression towards the mean was not applicable.