1. 11-09-11 09:24 AM #1
    GarbageMan
    On the phone....
    GarbageMan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-10
    Posts: 484
    Betpoints: 951

    EPL: will player x score prop help please..

    if i am pricing this prop, can i use poisson? as number of shot attempts by said player is likely to be <20
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 11-09-11 09:56 AM #2
    mathdotcom
    mathdotcom's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-24-08
    Posts: 11,689
    Betpoints: 1943

    Phrase your question like you're not a slovenly immigrant and maybe we'll help you
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 11-09-11 10:13 AM #3
    GarbageMan
    On the phone....
    GarbageMan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-10
    Posts: 484
    Betpoints: 951

    Quote Originally Posted by mathdotcom View Post
    Phrase your question like you're not a slovenly immigrant and maybe we'll help you
    edit

    actually thinking about it, don't bother mr math, i'd rather have this q answered by a sharp (tomg, rickysteve, justin7...) if they'd be so kind
    Last edited by GarbageMan; 11-09-11 at 11:31 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 11-09-11 11:29 AM #4
    GarbageMan
    On the phone....
    GarbageMan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-10
    Posts: 484
    Betpoints: 951

    oh yeah should've mentioned this prop is for english premier league soccer
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 11-09-11 12:16 PM #5
    mathdotcom
    mathdotcom's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-24-08
    Posts: 11,689
    Betpoints: 1943

    Since you are fond of Justin7, then I can happily refer you to his book which is available for purchase at an online retailer near you.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 11-09-11 02:44 PM #6
    GarbageMan
    On the phone....
    GarbageMan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-10
    Posts: 484
    Betpoints: 951

    got a few stats for this prop:

    player x
    . shots on goal per game 4.4
    . scored 11 goals
    . played 11 games
    his team
    . attempt 16 shots on goal per game
    . get 6 shots on target per game
    . has scored 23 goals in 11 games
    opponent
    . allows 17 shots on target per game
    . has conceeded 18 goals in 11 games
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 11-09-11 02:50 PM #7
    GarbageMan
    On the phone....
    GarbageMan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-10
    Posts: 484
    Betpoints: 951

    so i don't really think poisson can help, because of the low attempts on goal per game 4.4, would fail the 1st requirement.
    2nd requirement would fail too 11/44 = 0.25. 3rd requirement is ok, ie only 1 goal at a time and finally the 4th is ok too.
    so i'm guessing we would have to use another formula to price this prop, and that's where i'm getting stuck........
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 11-10-11 04:12 AM #8
    donkson
    donkson's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-12-11
    Posts: 411
    Betpoints: 1797

    These bets are often so juiced its rarely worth it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »