1. #1
    Justin7
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    Super Bowl props

    Before the first props come out at Hilton or online sportsbooks, I"ll have a crib-sheet with about 250 likely props priced. Is there a decent market for that crib-sheet?

  2. #2
    onthewhat
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    Do you usually make a killing on SB props?

    What are the limits on props for the Super Bowl, in Vegas and online?

  3. #3
    Justin7
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    Most vegas shops have limits of 1-2k for the major books, 500 for the minors. Internet books typically open at 200-500, and go up to 1k+ as you get closer.

    You could bet nothing but props and make a comfortable living.

  4. #4
    SlickFazzer
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    I need to do some study on the topic of props.

  5. #5
    xyz
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    Yes, I would like to learn about Justin's way of evaluating props for Super Bowl.

  6. #6
    pimike
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    O/T in Superbowl

    I am betting a tie in the Superbowl Bigtime, it has never happened, but shit it has to happen one of these times.

    I'm will bet as much as they will let me put on it.

  7. #7
    Justin7
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    Early ones I liked at Greek:
    No 2-pt conversion attempt -260
    No successful 2-pt conversion -650

    And of course the perrennial no overtime at just about any price, but wait until game day for that.

  8. #8
    Peeig
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    Justin, do you bet props in all sports, or just NFL?

  9. #9
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
    Justin, do you bet props in all sports, or just NFL?
    I'll do them in any sport, but most of the time it's not worth the effort. But if I can spend 72 hours and bet a lot (like Super Bowl), it's a good use of time.

  10. #10
    durito
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    Justin,

    How many more prop betting options are available in vegas for the super bowl compared to online? Is it worth traveling for?

  11. #11
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Early ones I liked at Greek:
    No 2-pt conversion attempt -260
    No successful 2-pt conversion -650

    And of course the perrennial no overtime at just about any price, but wait until game day for that.
    Although it seems obvious from those odds that if there is no 2-pt conversion attempted, the "not successful" is a winner, but remember there was an uproar a few year ago when a book graded that as No Action, saying that a conversion had to be attempted for the No Successful to have action.

    I guess what I am saying in a long-winded manner is to read the fine print in the rules at your book.

  12. #12
    durito
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    No missed extra pt -1500

  13. #13
    fiveteamer
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    Do you bet on the coin flip?

  14. #14
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by fiveteamer View Post
    Do you bet on the coin flip?
    If it's offered at +odds, sure.

  15. #15
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Although it seems obvious from those odds that if there is no 2-pt conversion attempted, the "not successful" is a winner, but remember there was an uproar a few year ago when a book graded that as No Action, saying that a conversion had to be attempted for the No Successful to have action.

    I guess what I am saying in a long-winded manner is to read the fine print in the rules at your book.
    I remember that dispute. They originally wanted to grade the muffed PAT as an attempt... but I ended up settling with several books (including 1 Vegas book) on a push. If that happened again, I could deal with it a lot better.

  16. #16
    fiveteamer
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    Do you ever bet basketball props???

  17. #17
    SportsLockPicks
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    i'm interested in the o/u of warners passing yards...don't think he'll be successful at all

  18. #18
    SportsLockPicks
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    also the o/u on total sacks in the game

  19. #19
    Justin7
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    Sportslock,

    I've priced these 2, but haven't bet them yet.

  20. #20
    Art Vandeleigh
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    Last time I was in Vegas during Super Bowl time was 4 years ago, but back then I remember it was the Aladdin sports book that seemed to be the most out of step with the others when it came to Super Bowl props.

  21. #21
    xyz
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    I see this prop on Bookmaker:

    STEELERS GET THE BALL FIRST +135
    CARDINALS GET THE BALL FIRST -165

    This implies the Steelers may choose to go on defense first if they win the toss. How likely is that?

  22. #22
    SportsLockPicks
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    they also may want to go against that for 2 reasons, 1. the cards will expect it. 2. don't give them the chance to get their offense in rhythm early

  23. #23
    Bread
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    I love playing me some Prop bets...especially on the big game.

    I'll be keeping an eye on any advice you might give up Justin.

  24. #24
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by xyz View Post
    I see this prop on Bookmaker:

    STEELERS GET THE BALL FIRST +135
    CARDINALS GET THE BALL FIRST -165

    This implies the Steelers may choose to go on defense first if they win the toss. How likely is that?
    No, it implies if the Cards win the toss, they will more than likely want the ball and if the Steelers win the toss, they will more than likely defer to the second half.

  25. #25
    onthewhat
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    Justin will you be making a video handicapping the Super Bowl?

  26. #26
    Ryangene
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    I really think that Willie Parker is MVP of the game and has a huge game. I'm taking all overs in his props.

  27. #27
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    Justin,

    How many more prop betting options are available in vegas for the super bowl compared to online? Is it worth traveling for?
    The Hilton offers a book of props every year on the SB. It's amazing. It's about 50 pages long. That alone is certainly worth traveling for...

  28. #28
    Ryangene
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    Is that about the best sportsbook to go to when in vegas?

  29. #29
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    The Hilton offers a book of props every year on the SB. It's amazing. It's about 50 pages long. That alone is certainly worth traveling for...
    This is why my last couple days have been hectic. I put in over 80 in 2.5 hours tonight.

  30. #30
    xyz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Early ones I liked at Greek:
    No 2-pt conversion attempt -260
    No successful 2-pt conversion -650

    And of course the perrennial no overtime at just about any price, but wait until game day for that.
    Justin, why wait until game day for no overtime? Do you expect the line to be more favorable for no overtime as we move closer to game day? Thanks for the insight.

  31. #31
    pico
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    it was tails last year. so i think i'll bet tails again

  32. #32
    Smogs
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    looking forward to some of the props on offer, justin will have estimated this better than me but i reckon warner throws 220 yards. Maybe 3 turnovers for ari and 1 pass td


    Oh and pico, thanks for teaching me what money is in russian, im learning fast - я говорю по русски не плохо

  33. #33
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smogs View Post
    looking forward to some of the props on offer, justin will have estimated this better than me but i reckon warner throws 220 yards. Maybe 3 turnovers for ari and 1 pass td


    Oh and pico, thanks for teaching me what money is in russian, im learning fast - я говорю по русски не плохо
    no need to learn russian. oil went down a shitload...russia is done.

  34. #34
    Smogs
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    lol, i'd better cancel my russian classes then

  35. #35
    themajormt
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    Justin are you going to post what you are on for the props??

    GL!

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