[bookie]

I want to be able to put in a win percentage, total number of plays, constant bet percentage, and odds--and get a bankroll multiplier.

[BigDaddy]

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/

[bookie]

BD...thanks but that one figures your stake given edge...I want one that figures bankroll growth given stake constant, edge, # of bets, W%.

Anybody got anything homegrown that does this? It would be pretty easy in Excel, but I'd just as soon not invent the wheel again if there's some floating around out there and there's got to be. Couldn't find any googling though.

[Santo]

=

[bookie]

Santo...This looks like what I"m looking for, but I get "Macros are disabled because they are not signed" when I try to use.

Anybody have an idea how I can work around this?

[ttmopp]

Try this:

Tools->options->Macro Security-> and set it to low or medium

[Ganchrow]

ttmop said it first.

But I'll just point out that the web page linked to by BigDaddy also provides a bankroll growth figure. (Look in the "Results" section where it says, "Your fortune will grow, on average, by about X% on each bet.")

[bookie]

ttmopp...thanks...that does allow the simulation to run...for some reason this calculator gives the average and median profit...but the "Expected Profit," which is the one I'm interested in, doesn't show (although there is a field for it).

ganchrow...how do you use the growth factor on each bet to calculate % of bankroll growth over N bets? Would it be 1 + growth factor as the exponent on the total number of bets?

And in that case, can anyone point me to a website with a Y to the X function? My calculator doesn't have one.

[JDK192]

Is this what you're looking for. The variables that you can change are: 1)beginning bankroll 2)win % 3)target bankroll 4)# of bets 4)amt risked. This will tell you the % that you have of hitting your target bankroll and the % of going broke. I have developed a few others like this as well if it doesn't have what you want.

[bookie]

What great feedback! Thanks so much to all.

JDK...I'm not concerned with the element of ruin thing now...and I might not understand the target bankroll idea...what I want is just something that solves the kelly equation for bankroll growth given N number of bets P as constant percentage of current bankroll bet and W as the winning percentage of the N bets. (Obviously not conerned about what variables are called.)

[ttmopp]

what I want is just something that solves the kelly equation for bankroll growth given N number of bets P as constant percentage of current bankroll bet and W as the winning percentage of the N bets. (Obviously not conerned about what variables are called.)

This is the formula I used for my own calc on Excel if you're interested in making your own

G = (1+(k-1)b)^W * (1-b)^L

G = Bankroll growth rate
k = Odds (european style ie. 2.20)
W = Bets won = n*q
L = Bets lost = n*(1-q)
b = Stake
n = Number of bets
q = Probability of winning

[bookie]

Yup. I know the equation. I'm still hoping someone will save my lazy ass from doing it myself.

[Ganchrow]

It appears the Albion Calculator has a bug. I'll try to write a new Kelly utility tonight and post it here.

Bookie: The MS Windows calculator app handles exponentiation. Run it, and then on the calculator "View" menu, select "Scientific".

[bookie]

Wow! That would be a cool thing to have, and would even be a site asset I would think.