Setting units

[ardacet8]

Hi guys, I want to hear from you people about how you set your units of plays. Suppose I got $1000 bankroll. Would you use kelly criterion or kelly with 1/4 fraction or standard units as $10 and move along a scale of 1 to 10? How do you decide how much to bet on a game? Or just instincts you got?

My problem with Kelly is that I am not a guy who just picks a game and bet on only that for the time. So Kelly gets mixed up for me. So I am using the that scale system that i mentioned. What about you?

[Sawyer]

Kelly sucks. Bet flat, keep your head relax. If you're looking for something more flexible, then use a narrow-ranged-stake-strategy such as 3-4-5 or 2-2½-3.

[ebbearsfb1]

with a 1000 dollar roll, in an ideal world your suppose to be 1-2% but with a smaller roll maybe you bump it up to 3-5%

[ardacet8]

Ok lets say you would set your unit as 2% or 3% of your roll. And how much would you dedicate for a match? Just 1 unit? Or you would put a scale of 5 or 10 to wager on a pick?

[rkelly110]

Fibonacci is a good betting system.

http://mybetinfo.com/fibonacci.html

[ardacet8]

Fibonacci is a good betting system.

http://mybetinfo.com/fibonacci.html

Ok I have read the Fibonacci stake system but what I am seeking for is not a "system" but a tip about money management. I know there are some real big and/or smart investors around here and I want to hear out from you about "your" money management techniques.

[rkelly110]

Well, the normal bet size is between 1 to 2.5% of your bank roll. Personally, I use a set bet. If I lose, I go up only
$1 at a time, but I have a high winning percentage. I don't have your bank roll size. If I did, I'd use the Fibonacci
method which is a money management system.

[gui_m_p]

Be careful with methods like Martingale/ Fibonacci that advice to increase the bet size after a loss. Rememeber that if you are betting with -110 odds a streak of 6 wins/losses is expected in each 200 plays. In the long run you'll see greater sequences with 8, 10, 13 losses in a row and you will be broken. So I just recommend you to use those methods for a short period.

Regarding the bet size, I think anything over 3% is overbetting. The best cappers in the world have faced moments of -25 units or worse, so if they were betting 4%, 5% it would mean bankruptcy. Only bet this large in short term, to increase bankroll up to a point. The ideal is no bets larger than 1%. But with a short bankroll is your decision to apply or not a more agressive management before slowing down.

I do use Kelly criterion. Full Kelly is certainly overbetting. If you are dealing with odds of -110 a 4/10 Kelly probably will lead you to a bet of 2% of your bankroll. 1/4 like you suggest will result around 1,5%. The problem is calculate your edge in each bet.