(Mod please link to think tank as well)
The math isn't hard, but I don't have the databases or knowledge to determine the true percentages so I could use some help.
I'm basically positive Tre Mason would have been better off kneeling at the 1 instead of scoring with slightly over a minute left last night. Given the situation, I would not expect him or Malzahn to be thinking of such a thing.
But if someone can determine a somewhat accurate win percentage for Auburn immediately after scoring and compare it to first and goal at the 1 (forcing FSU to take there 2nd timeout), I'll toss you 500 points.
At minimum you need to consider
FSU OT % win
Auburn scoring % first and goal on the 1
Auburn TD percentage first and goal on the 1
If you have the ability to consider all possible options playing out from the kneel down to end of game, that would be fantastic. But even if you just assume any Auburn TD would leave FSU with 1 timeout and about 1:15 left, that would be worth the 500 points to me.
Good luck
If you post in this thread that you are attempting to get a solution... I will give you a 20 minute exclusivity window so that you don't have to worry about someone beating you too it.
The math isn't hard, but I don't have the databases or knowledge to determine the true percentages so I could use some help.
I'm basically positive Tre Mason would have been better off kneeling at the 1 instead of scoring with slightly over a minute left last night. Given the situation, I would not expect him or Malzahn to be thinking of such a thing.
But if someone can determine a somewhat accurate win percentage for Auburn immediately after scoring and compare it to first and goal at the 1 (forcing FSU to take there 2nd timeout), I'll toss you 500 points.
At minimum you need to consider
FSU OT % win
Auburn scoring % first and goal on the 1
Auburn TD percentage first and goal on the 1
If you have the ability to consider all possible options playing out from the kneel down to end of game, that would be fantastic. But even if you just assume any Auburn TD would leave FSU with 1 timeout and about 1:15 left, that would be worth the 500 points to me.
Good luck
If you post in this thread that you are attempting to get a solution... I will give you a 20 minute exclusivity window so that you don't have to worry about someone beating you too it.