HPC Question

[mbs4]

When using the half point calculator, if I pick NCAAB and put in odds of 100 on both sides, why do I get different prices for favorites and dogs when buying the same points?

Example: Put in 1.5 as spread, buying 1.5 points for the dog to +3 gives odds of -130.2. Then put in 3 as spread, buying 1.5 points for the favorite to -1.5 gives odds of -128.5.

Shouldn't they be the same odds because you would be buying the same 1.5 points? What am I missing? Thanks.

[mbs4]

Any thoughts?

[LT Profits]

Not the same thing. The value each half-point lessens as spreads get bigger. Now granted there is not TOO much difference between -1.5 and -3, but there is still the slightest of differences as evidenced by the prices you got.

[mbs4]

Thanks for the response LTP. How does the math work out?

Assuming a 50/50 win probability, if you take the example of buying the dog from +1.5 to +3, then the win probability becomes 50% + 3.91% + 4.67%/2 = 56.245%.

If you take the example of buying the favorite from -3 to -1.5, then the win probability is still 50% + 4.67%/2 + 3.91% = 56.245%.

So the fair odds should be -128.55 for either right? What am I doing wrong?

[Jayvegas420]

I don't know if this helps but there is more juice when you buy points rather than sell them.

[mbs4]

Thanks for the response LTP. How does the math work out?

Assuming a 50/50 win probability, if you take the example of buying the dog from +1.5 to +3, then the win probability becomes 50% + 3.91% + 4.67%/2 = 56.245%.

If you take the example of buying the favorite from -3 to -1.5, then the win probability is still 50% + 4.67%/2 + 3.91% = 56.245%.

So the fair odds should be -128.55 for either right? What am I doing wrong?

Certainly there's a simple answer that I'm missing?

[mbs4]

LT Profits? Anyone?