[Justin7]

[l7ustin]

27 to 12 Ravens

great vid

[scotty0129]

Nice Video. Go Ravens!

[Dark Horse]

I'm intrigued by your comment that Pennington has been lucky to avoid more interceptions and is due (to throw one, but probably 2 picks). Partly because I'm definitely looking towards turnovers as a leading indicator for today's games.

Miami is #1 in turnover differential, but Baltimore is #3. So this being played in Miami, and Baltimore having the rookie QB in his first playoff game, why wouldn't Baltimore turnovers also move towards the mean?

If there are basically three seasons, each with a different speed (preseason, regular season, playoffs), wouldn't it make sense that Flacco is the QB that may need time to adjust? Flacco is being guided along in a conservative way, so logic suggests that he is more vulnerable to throwing interceptions when the Ravens fall behind. Let's see if that is true.

week 1 17-10 win over CIN. Ravens always had the lead. No INT's.
week 2 bye
week 3 28-10 win over CLE. Ravens 7-10 behind at the half. 2 INT's (but Cleveland had 3).
week 4 20-23 OT loss to PIT. BAL up 13-3 at halftime, and game very close. No need for Flacco to take unnecessary risk. No INT's.
week 5 13-10 loss to TEN. A defensive battle. 2 INT (2 for TEN as well).
week 6 31-3 loss to IND. Big deficit puts the game on Flacco's shoulders. His season high 3 INT's.
Since week 6 Flacco has only thrown 5 INT's in eleven games. Two of these came in a 30-10 loss to NYG. And another two came in a 13-9 loss to PIT. These were the only two losses since week 6! PIT also had two turnovers (both fumbles), and that game was close to the end, but the NYG game, like the IND game, illustrates the point. (turnovers will also help to increase a deficit, but my focus is on the game being forced into Flacco's hands).

So it seems safe to say that BAL does NOT want to put the game on Flacco's shoulders. They just want him to manage the game. Therefore a big key to the Ravens is not to fall behind. Along this line of reasoning the question becomes: can Miami take the lead?

Let's also look at the games in which Flacco threw INT's. Of his 12 interceptions this season how many came against playoff teams? The answer to this is 9! 75% of his interceptions came against playoff-bound teams (and the Ravens faced such opposition in 7 out of 16 games).

Does this change your perception of Baltimore for this game?

[Dark Horse]

edited above post. bumping it for feedback (before betting on the game).

Miami did have a weak schedule, and of Pennington's 7 INT's only 1 came against a playoff bound team (Baltimore!). They only played three playoff bound teams (and beat ARI and SD). Miami hasn't faced a playoff team since week 7. Since then they did have some pretty impressive road victories at DEN, BUF, and a must-win NYJ in week 17.

After beginning the season with two losses, they introduced their Wildcat formation in week 3, which was a big part of their wins at the Patriots and versus the Chargers in weeks 3 and 4. They no longer have that element of surprise, but it's not their fault that they played a weak schedule. They do seem to be up to the task of playing strong teams.

[Justin7]

Dark,

The best predictor of interceptions is simply the number of passes thrown. I think the average is about 1/25 pass attempts. Regardless of how Pennington has done in the past, if he throws the ball 37 times, I'd expect about 1.5 interceptions in this game from him.

[Justin7]

Edit - this is also based on Pennington's historical int rates, and I don't think his int rate dropped in half as a forward predictor this year.

[Dark Horse]

The best predictor of interceptions is simply the number of passes thrown. I think the average is about 1/25 pass attempts. Regardless of how Pennington has done in the past, if he throws the ball 37 times, I'd expect about 1.5 interceptions in this game from him.

And from Flacco?

[bmw530i]

Your vids are great. That being said, I have been catching fire lately. Going against the grain here Dolphins +3.5. Have a great New Year Justin!

[ijustwant2bpaid]

hope ur right justin!

[Justin7]

And from Flacco?

Ravens run the ball more than any other team. Fewer passes, fewer picks.

[Dark Horse]

Nice call on the picks. Pennington 4 INT's already.

[bmw530i]

Very nice call Justin....lmmfao on O/U diet cokes...