[Justin7]

Sorry, I went a bit long on this one.

http://www.sbr.tv/WatchVideo.aspx?postId=611

[EBone]

Nice video, Justin.

[nick2060]

good video, its matt ryan btw

[Justin7]

good video, its matt ryan btw

Yeah, I caught that... but didn't want to reshoot the whole thing for the two times I goofed.

[Dark Horse]

Nice. Especially the Colts @ San Diego analysis.

The Cardinals are being somewhat underestimated, in my opinion. The results from after they wrapped up the division should probably be tossed out. With nothing to play for they played two teams with everything on the line: Vikings and Pats in the snow. Meaningless flat performances. The air went out of the balloon after they won the division. The question is not if it will be back in the balloon on Saturday, but why that would even be a question.

Arizona at home until they clinched division:
ARI -6.5 over MIA 31-10 (beating spread by 14.5 pts)
ARI -1 over BUF 41-17 (beating spread by 23 pts)
ARI +4.5 over DAL in OT 30-24 (beating spread by 10.5 pts; after giving up a late 10 pt lead...)
ARI -9.5 over SF 29-24 (losing ATS by 4.5 pts)
ARI +3 losing to NYG 29-37 (losing ATS by 5 pts)
ARI -14 over STL 34-10 (beating spread by 10 pts)

The only SU loss came to the Superbowl champ (when they returned to the field where they won it all). In all other games, except -at the time underestimated - SF, the spread was beaten by DD's. The NYG were 3 pt faves, the same opening line as for ATL. ATL may be good, but that good? Unless we believe the media driven idea that Arizona is a joke, the wrong team is favored.

They're unbalanced (passing/rushing), but mostly by choice. Hightower is a very effective runner in the red zone (I think with a record number of rushing TD's, or at least a few weeks ago he was). Because Hightower was so successful they gave him all the rushing duties (Edge to the bench), but that was too much for the rookie. In any case, with the no huddle, his top quality receivers, and his experience Warner doesn't really need a balanced attack. Hightower is very good where it comes to finishing drives, or for short yardage on 3rd downs.

I don't expect to see the late season Cards, but the team that early in the season beat the Bills, when they were riding high, and Dallas, when they were a Superbowl favorite. The media have bashed Arizona for their late season collapse and for winning a weak division, but they conveniently forget these games, as well as an almost road win over the Panthers. Coincidence or not, in these two games they knocked out both QB's for a number of games; Edwards with a concussion and Romo with a broken pinkie. This would be the beginning of the end for both teams.

On a sidenote. Arizona, like most west coast teams, has suffered from 1PM starts in the East. Why on earth the NFL can't schedule those games for 4 PM ET is beyond me, but it clearly gives the East an unfair home field advantage.

I'm on the Matt Ryan train, but do we really expect him to outperform Warner in what will be a very loud arena? Atlanta is a nice team, and well balanced, but the team that has to prove something here is not Atlanta but Arizona. They should be up to that task. On the road they're vulnerable, but the Cardinals at home can really rock. This has been the game in their cross hair since locking up the division. They could come out roaring, because top athletes get sick and tired of not being shown respect in the media. This weekend the reward for most pent-up aggression goes to Arizona.

[Justin7]

They're unbalanced (passing/rushing), but mostly by choice. Hightower is a very effective runner in the red zone (I think with a record number of rushing TD's, or at least a few weeks ago he was).

Interesting. Based on your feedback, I looked up Arizona's red-zone stats here: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW...08/17redzn.htm

They are pretty good at red-zone offense for a "crummy" team. #9 in the league actually, with 58% resulting in TDs, and 83% scoring.

[Dark Horse]

Hightower stats. Not a lot of yardage, but 10 rushing TD's.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...playerId=11383


As to stopping Michael Turner. Cards faced similar situation against Dallas. Barber only rushed for 45 yards.

[Portlander]

Solid review... thanks

[willpies]

you got it wrong man

[Justin7]

you got it wrong man

Yep. I'm wrong almost half the time

[VegasDave]

Yep. I'm wrong almost half the time

46% losers is just fine Justin, nice vid all the same

[therber2]

Justin7,

Good analysis. Even though your prediction was incorrect I think there is a lot of truth in the way you go about looking the game. Thank you for the hard work.

Now, you came up with the conclusion that ATL would win by a little over 3 pts. So this play really was not very strong. You mentioned that in the video. I think also what made this not a very strong prediction, is that it was a wildcard game. So there is a huge pressure element. You looked at a lot of factors, but a team's performance while under pressure should have been a huge factor here to me.

A coach's composure while under pressure and the QB's composure are huge. Compare SD QB Rivers to the coach of the Colts in the tight SD victory. Indy players weren't really even paying attention to him; he was extremely uncomfortable for most of the game, while Rivers a YOUNG nfl player kept a sound mind, and this had a lot to do with their tight victory!

Another example, Laker's vs. Utah Jazz the other day. Although Lakers were the fav., the game got incredibly close. If we ignore the fact that the lights went out in the end as a factor (which I won't deny may have had a certain affect on Lakers strong playing after it happening), I would like to take note 3 people in this game who STATISTICALLY keep their composure while under pressure: Kobe Byrant, Pao Gasol, and Phil Jackson. Unfortunately for the lakers, the rest of the team does not perform well in a tight game.

Utah is always strong second half. Lakers should have had the game. Knowing that Utah plays like nuts 2nd halfs it was smart of Jackson to give Kobe a rest when he did, and put him back in when the team needed a player with composure.

Valiant effort Justin7, but there are just wayyy to many factors to process when playing these games. Reminds me of the movie Pi. Hehe. My favorite part of your video is you reallizing that 3 pts or so is a small play and probably not worth putting money on. I played ARIZONA and SD today because I thought the game was tight, and I looked more at player composure under pressure which could be roughly calculated as a statistical indicator both player by player, and team by team; if you care to do so.

So I think this composure element applies for wildcards, and playoffs, but it can also be used when you up against a high scoring second half team 2nd halfs. For example, if the odds favor one team but not by much; and the favorite tends to lose close games (which might indicate poor performance due to pressure) I would say stay away from a game with those kinds of odds. Just don't even touch it.

**My 15 cents

[Dark Horse]

Is 15 cents the standard appreciation for 2 in 20/20 hindsight? From watching the video I didn't get the impression that this was anything more than a lean. The Chargers were a pick, and they cashed. Justin's videos are first class. His points are always valid and lead you into the game by thinking about them. They're a great starting point, but you still have to do your own work. If you want perfect picks you may want to look into one of these:

[Justin7]

Thanks for the feedback, therber2. I don't have a good way to incorporate experience, motivation and choking into a number. I therefore ignore it. I would obviously do a bit better if I had a good way to analyze it... but I don't. I don't want to speculate on something for which I have no clue.

[therber2]

Is 15 cents the standard appreciation for 2 in 20/20 hindsight? From watching the video I didn't get the impression that this was anything more than a lean. The Chargers were a pick, and they cashed. Justin's videos are first class. His points are always valid and lead you into the game by thinking about them. They're a great starting point, but you still have to do your own work. If you want perfect picks you may want to look into one of these: