[Ice House]

Okay fellas so I hear some of you say I capped this game at -24 on a -28 spread...? what does this mean? How does a capper come to a conclussion like this?


somebody take me step by step on what you do when you are capping a game .... lets say the Saints vs Panthers game on Sunday.


what do I need to look at? step by step

thanks I'm trying to learn something

[Bongo]

If only the Pinny/Bookmaker/Las Vegas line originators would show their step-by-step process on how they come up with the original -24.

[subs]

thanks I'm trying to learn something

think u'll learn that peeps don't give out that kind of info. u'll need to research.

sorry buddy but any advice here just isn't going to make u a winning capper vs the NFL. hint there r other ways to make money tho... and i def don't mean paying for picks.

there have been a bunch (maybe a hundred a year) similar threads, try searching for them

[Ice House]

i thought thats what the think tank was for

[Duff85]

Yep - it is - but you need to show your willing to learn, by reading back through the old threads and then asking very specific questions that fill in the gaps. Subs above has posted a massive bit of gold which 99% of posters will just gloss over. I've said it before - I could tell people what makes me money - and 50% of them still wouldn't be profitable through lack of discipline, motivation and composure.

Yet the stuff I do i've learned simply by reading gambling forums.

[jds07v]

There are infinite possibilities, but nobody here is going to spell out their model, system or whatever they use. Next semester I am taking a linear regression class, and my professor said he could help me setup a model for baseball totals. For example, I would weight different statistics, most notably probably being WHIP and OBP, but I am not exactly sure how to finagle the numbers to get them to work between say 4
I found a very simple football model that Ace-Ace posted on the rxforum. I haven't tried it out, but it involves time of possession, turnovers and a few other pieces of information. Do a simple search there and you can find a very basic example of making your own line

[CHUBNUT]

you want some advice? dont listen to these lost souls with their secretive models. a betting model only chains you to selections without using your best option, intuition. instead of being robotic in your opinions keep an open mind and always be aware that you have the power to bet or not bet. dont get involved with the moronic nonsense of line movement or beating the closing lines, these are only distractions invented by desperate people with no other resort but to disregard reality.

[CHUBNUT]

There are infinite possibilities, but nobody here is going to spell out their model, system or whatever they use. Next semester I am taking a linear regression class, and my professor said he could help me setup a model for baseball totals. For example, I would weight different statistics, most notably probably being WHIP and OBP, but I am not exactly sure how to finagle the numbers to get them to work between say 4<x<12 for the standard baseball totals.

I found a very simple football model that Ace-Ace posted on the rxforum. I haven't tried it out, but it involves time of possession, turnovers and a few other pieces of information. Do a simple search there and you can find a very basic example of making your own line

you need to get a grip of reality before its too late.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Durito gets banned.

This moron gets free reign in the Think Tank.

Go team Justin7!!!

[subs]

Durito gets banned.

nooooo, really?

big bad shame

[suicidekings]

what do I need to look at? step by step

Not to be intentionally cryptic or difficult, but you have ZERO chance of succeeding at this if you don't do the majority of the work yourself. In the most general terms, modelling requires that you be able to describe each team numerically in such a way that you're getting an accurate description of their current form as well as their overall ability. This means (at minimum) good data, moderate to strong excel skills, and a lot of free time.

The basic mechanics of building that model can be gleaned from past threads in here and a few books are also available (some are easy to locate, some are not) that are very valuable resources, especially for a novice.

Good luck.

[CHUBNUT]

Durito gets banned.

This moron gets free reign in the Think Tank.

Go team Justin7!!!

Forums are for discussion of varied opinions, if you only want to hear yours why dont you sit in a corner and talk to yourself.

[That Foreign Guy]

you want some advice? dont listen to these lost souls with their secretive models. a betting model only chains you to selections without using your best option, intuition. instead of being robotic in your opinions keep an open mind and always be aware that you have the power to bet or not bet. dont get involved with the moronic nonsense of line movement or beating the closing lines, these are only distractions invented by desperate people with no other resort but to disregard reality.

Really? You don't think beating the closing line is important?

I think we've discussed this in the past, but I would like to propose a wager for whatever the nice people at the Sunshine Home for Special Kids give you in pocket money each week that if you give me a point on the closing line I can flat bet every NFL game remaining this season at -110 and show a profit.

[statictheory]

Okay, as you can see, sportsbetting is different because edges are many times very small and it would be stabbing themselves in the back to
simply give you info that has sometimes taken people years to refine.
That being said start with books such as "Conquering Risk", "Weighing the odds in Sportsbetting"(which you can get on kindle for 8dollars),
and the original Sharp Sports betting by Sanford Wong. Read these books and then you will have at least an idea of what it takes to make money.
good luck