[statnerds]

So I never gave this much thought until a few days ago. I had Minnesota at +219 vs LAA. Saw the closing line and knew there was no way I beat it by 40 cents. Checked my book, wager canceled due to pitching change.

So this leads to the question, for those extremely rare instances of big ML Faves and pitching changes.

If you were betting a dog of +200 or more, should you take action or listed? It makes sense to me to take action because any pitching change is likely to have a larger impact on the favorite than on the the dog. One shit pitcher for another on the dog, who cares? But change out a Lee or Sabathia and the number will drop.

Thoughts?

[skrtelfan]

If you have one of the rare books that doesn't adjust the line after a pitching change, then taking action has merit, but the majority of books adjust the line after the pitching change, at which point you're at the mercy of the book picking whatever line they want.

[ronibrown]

oh my..this is happening, i can't blieve it

[LT Profits]

Always take listed because if you take "Action", the books will adjust the line to the new opener and you won't get a chance to line shop.

[illfuuptn]

Beating a line by 40 cents from +259 to +219 is not that big of a deal.

[LT Profits]

Beating a line by 40 cents from +259 to +219 is not that big of a deal.

It was +219 to +179

[tomcowley]

beating a line by 40 cents from +259 to +219 is not that big of a deal.

lolwtf?

[illfuuptn]

lolwtf?

I'd rather beat it from +150 to +110.

[skrtelfan]

I'd rather beat it from +150 to +110.

And I'd rather have a pound of gold than a pound of silver but I wouldn't throw a pound of silver in the trash if it was given to me.

[tomcowley]

I'd rather beat it from +150 to +110.

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