[Sunde91]

the following are win probabilites for each game of a NCAAF team converted from spread (team is Iowa)

99.5%
70.34
70.34
95
36.86
66.42
85.14
77.36
63.14
57.44
66.42
27.02

= 8.15 wins

correct?

total is 7.5 (O -135/U +105)

I lean over

Odds from Win Total Line of Iowa winning more than 7.5 games are 57.4% (-135)

Now how to calculate the edge?

Is .65 games over the Total worth laying -135?

There's also Over 8 +150

[cappingsports]

If you're expected win percentages are accurate, then yes, everything you've calculated thus far is correct.

I calculate, based on your win percentages, that the chances of Iowa winning over 7.5 games is 66.69%.

You're right, the over is the right side, based on the odds offered, if your win percentages are accurate. With the odds you're being offered, I calculate your edge to be 16.04% by betting the over on this market.

[wiffle]

if poisson applies here then no.

More Than 7½
56.7774%-131.36

[cubsker]

no way u can use poisson. got to monte carlo it and see how often they win each amount of games imo.

[cubsker]

i do have a 12 game excel simulator using win percentage. If you want it, PM me.