My wife and I were invited to a party tonight.
Party like any other in my circle. A lot to eat, a lot to drink plus bunch of BS discussions on all kinds of stuff.
Where this Monty Hall issue came from I have no idea, but it became apparent that for at least one man in a world this 20 years old argument was still an open one and he was still in a 50/50 camp despite indisputable fact that this is a 2 to 1 proposition.
So instead of arguing, I decided to make it just that - a proposition.
I asked him how much would he be willing to wager on taking 50% vs my 66.66%.
We would settle it by going to a first Monty Hall simulation on Google and running a decent number of trials.
Whoever will be closer to his number by the end wins.
He said $1000 for 100 trials. I asked for $2000 for 200 (greedy bastard).
So we agreed for $1500 for 150.
So we went to a first simulator on Google and I'm switching doors every time. If by the end my winning %% is over 58.33 (half way between 50 and 66.66) or at least 88 cars out of 150 trials I win.
I mean, I like the bet! Binomial calculator app on my smart phone showed that my chances to get at most 87 out of 150 with p = 66.66% is 1.64%. Yep, I sure like the faking bet!
Well, here is the result. I have a snap shot image but I can't post here with imageshack for some reason.
Till I figure it out, please trust me. The numbers are true.
83 out of 150. Winning %% = 55.33. Ouch!
Guy took my 1500, his wife, made some kind of semi arrogant remark and left.
Of course Ill try to get him back to this little game, but I dont like my chances on that.
Thats how I lost my best bet ever.
So why you kids should be careful with your betting models?
Because, unlike most of you, I had the best model one can ever dreamed of in sports betting.
I BTCL in every game silly. My edge was monstrous.
And it was not an assumed edge. Or edge that was dreamed up or manufactured by a confused mind that got fooled time after time in its never ending search for patterns.
I had indisputable, iron clad edge. I had mathematical fact.
If those 150 trial represent a football season, I would only supposed to lose like that once in 400 years!!!
Thats how big of a favorite I was.
And still, randomness won.
If randomness can distroy double digit advantage, can you imagine how hard it is to find black cat in a dark room especially if cat is not there?