1. #1
    hutennis
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    How I lost the best bet ever or why you kids should be careful with your models.

    My wife and I were invited to a party tonight.

    Party like any other in my circle. A lot to eat, a lot to drink plus bunch of BS discussions on all kinds of stuff.
    Where this Monty Hall issue came from I have no idea, but it became apparent that for at least one man in a world this 20 years old argument was still an open one and he was still in a 50/50 camp despite indisputable fact that this is a 2 to 1 proposition.

    So instead of arguing, I decided to make it just that - a proposition.

    I asked him how much would he be willing to wager on taking 50% vs my 66.66%.

    We would settle it by going to a first Monty Hall simulation on Google and running a decent number of trials.
    Whoever will be closer to his number by the end wins.

    He said $1000 for 100 trials. I asked for $2000 for 200 (greedy bastard).

    So we agreed for $1500 for 150.
    So we went to a first simulator on Google and I'm switching doors every time. If by the end my winning %% is over 58.33 (half way between 50 and 66.66) or at least 88 cars out of 150 trials I win.

    I mean, I like the bet! Binomial calculator app on my smart phone showed that my chances to get at most 87 out of 150 with p = 66.66% is 1.64%. Yep, I sure like the faking bet!

    Well, here is the result. I have a snap shot image but I can't post here with imageshack for some reason.
    Till I figure it out, please trust me. The numbers are true.

    83 out of 150. Winning %% = 55.33. Ouch!
    Guy took my 1500, his wife, made some kind of semi arrogant remark and left.
    Of course Ill try to get him back to this little game, but I dont like my chances on that.

    Thats how I lost my best bet ever.

    So why you kids should be careful with your betting models?

    Because, unlike most of you, I had the best model one can ever dreamed of in sports betting.
    I BTCL in every game silly. My edge was monstrous.

    And it was not an assumed edge. Or edge that was dreamed up or manufactured by a confused mind that got fooled time after time in its never ending search for patterns.

    I had indisputable, iron clad edge. I had mathematical fact.
    If those 150 trial represent a football season, I would only supposed to lose like that once in 400 years!!!
    Thats how big of a favorite I was.

    And still, randomness won.

    If randomness can distroy double digit advantage, can you imagine how hard it is to find black cat in a dark room especially if cat is not there?

  2. #2
    Dark Horse
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    If randomness can distroy double digit advantage, can you imagine how hard it is to find black cat in a dark room especially if cat is not there?
    You had to win 88-62 over something that he believed was worth 75-75. You beat him 55.33% - 44.67%. Still a double digit advantage. You proved him wrong, and he knows it, and yet you lost. I don't think this one is about 'spotting the black cat in the room (in the first hour of play)'.

  3. #3
    HedgeHog
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    An extra 50 trials may have been all you needed. Tough break.

  4. #4
    FreeFall
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    This is why you only bet a certain % of your BR on plays.

  5. #5
    TomG
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    It's gambling. Get used to it.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: cray0ns

  6. #6
    Dark Horse
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    I would say you need about 300 plays to get in the clear. At least, that's my observation in MLB. By comparison, the NFL season typically doesn't offer enough betting opportunities, and so a guy can hit 62% ATS in the NFL one year and 48% the next. In MLB the year to year results are much more likely to focus on a narrow percentage range.

  7. #7
    cubsker
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    wait a minute, bets with an edge can lose? weird.

  8. #8
    hutennis
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    Just to make it clear. Its not about a bet with an edge that lost. Its not about losing at all.
    Plus it was not a bet. Not a single bet anyway. At least the way I see it.

    Imagine a football (or baseball, or any) season.
    You sure are ready for it. You are pumped.
    You work so hard on developing the best sportsbetting model ever and now its time to get paid for all your troubles.

    Here what that model does for you.
    In every wager you make you take a favorite at -140 and every time you do that Pinny closes at -215/+193.
    Pretty nice, is not it? But hey, that's your model.

    So you made 150 wagers like that. Season is over and you lost money.
    You did not lose every wager you made.
    You actually won 55.33% of them. But it was not enough. On balance, you lost money.

    What happen to me is identical to the example above.
    Weird?

    So the moral of this story is simple.
    Above anything else, Respect Risk.

    In your darkest nightmare you can not even come close to imagining what randomness (nature) can do to you and your beloved models you work so hard on developing and so proud of.
    Sure as shit, as soon as you let down your guard and become complacent, Black Swan will fly right in to wipe you off.

    That being said, I'd sure as shit would make that bet over and over again. For a lot more money too.

  9. #9
    Dark Horse
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    That being said, I'd sure as shit would make that bet over and over again. For a lot more money too.
    Just for kicks.
    How did the topic come up at the party?
    Did you or the other guy select the program?
    Did you or the other guy select the first door?

  10. #10
    Wrecktangle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    I would say you need about 300 plays to get in the clear. At least, that's my observation in MLB. By comparison, the NFL season typically doesn't offer enough betting opportunities, and so a guy can hit 62% ATS in the NFL one year and 48% the next. In MLB the year to year results are much more likely to focus on a narrow percentage range.
    Plus MLB doesn't change the rules every damn season to further mix up the issue.

  11. #11
    bztips
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    In every wager you make you take a favorite at -140 and every time you do that Pinny closes at -215/+193.
    Pretty nice, is not it? But hey, that's your model.

    So you made 150 wagers like that. Season is over and you lost money.
    You did not lose every wager you made.
    You actually won 55.33% of them. But it was not enough. On balance, you lost money.
    Good example of why "beating the closing line" is overrated...
    Points Awarded:

    WendysRox gave bztips 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  12. #12
    hutennis
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    BTCL is a winning concept imo and I did not mean to undermine it at all.

    This story is the best example I can think of of an overwhelming importance of risk management
    It should dwarf any other considerations.

    If BTCL by such a gigantic margin can lose, nothing else stands the chance without maniacal risk management.

  13. #13
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    Just for kicks.
    How did the topic come up at the party?
    Did you or the other guy select the program?
    Did you or the other guy select the first door?
    I really dont know where the subject came from.
    I know they played some kind of game inside while I still was outside talking stock market or something.

    I only herd "There are just 2 doors left, dumb idiot. It has to be 50/50" and at that point I got involved.
    I saw the mark, you know...

    I told him that simulation is the best way to settle it. I suggested to Google "Monty Hall simulation" and use the first to come up. Thats what we did.

  14. #14
    rookie
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    Just played with the same simulator: 106 out of 150 trials (70.6%). I have saved a screenshot. Let me know if you want to see it. Next time, play with his wife.

  15. #15
    Dark Horse
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    I really dont know where the subject came from.
    I know they played some kind of game inside while I still was outside talking stock market or something.

    I only herd "There are just 2 doors left, dumb idiot. It has to be 50/50" and at that point I got involved.
    I saw the mark, you know...

    I told him that simulation is the best way to settle it. I suggested to Google "Monty Hall simulation" and use the first to come up. Thats what we did.
    It's a long shot, but this could be the perfect con. If the simulator isn't clean. For instance if it behaves differently when the first door is in the middle, or if results are better when you change first doors immediately after a switch loses. You were talking about the stock market (investing/risk/numbers)?

  16. #16
    DRB
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    Interesting post. You took a shot when the odds were in your favor ( strongly )
    and that's the best way to gamble !!

  17. #17
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    It's a long shot, but this could be the perfect con. If the simulator isn't clean. For instance if it behaves differently when the first door is in the middle, or if results are better when you change first doors immediately after a switch loses. You were talking about the stock market (investing/risk/numbers)?
    I see what you saying.
    I am on a look out for those things all the time.

    But no, this time it was clean. Just some opinionated dentist got lucky for a change.

  18. #18
    affest
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    Useful sharing. More trial needed

  19. #19
    affest
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    or you should read fooled by randomness book

  20. #20
    sharpcircle
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    OP,

    If only there was a optimal way to size bets...

  21. #21
    Sawyer
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    More trial needed. If you have an edge, you will win over long term..but over short term, you may lose. Bettor must keep betting. He may win in a period but over long haul, you will win.

    Beating closing line is overrated? In some sports, yes. Market don't have any idea about some sports. Like Horse racing Market, -specially Ireland races) many times I see odds for a horse drop like crazy, say from +500 to +300 but this horse fails to win many times. The line movement doesn't effect the result of the race.

  22. #22
    donjuan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    More trial needed. If you have an edge, you will win over long term..but over short term, you may lose. Bettor must keep betting. He may win in a period but over long haul, you will win.

    Beating closing line is overrated? In some sports, yes. Market don't have any idea about some sports. Like Horse racing Market, -specially Ireland races) many times I see odds for a horse drop like crazy, say from +500 to +300 but this horse fails to win many times. The line movement doesn't effect the result of the race.
    Shocking that a +300 bet with a huge house take like in a parimutuel pool would "fail to win many times".

  23. #23
    Dark Horse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    More trial needed. If you have an edge, you will win over long term..but over short term, you may lose. Bettor must keep betting. He may win in a period but over long haul, you will win.

    Beating closing line is overrated? In some sports, yes. Market don't have any idea about some sports. Like Horse racing Market, -specially Ireland races) many times I see odds for a horse drop like crazy, say from +500 to +300 but this horse fails to win many times. The line movement doesn't effect the result of the race.

    Are there market inefficiencies in horse racing? Sure. The trick is to find them. And of course it's about value, not about the line movement predicting the winner. If you know what you're doing and bet a lot of overlays you'll end up ahead. If instead of on value, you focus on picking the winners of races only, something the general horse racing public is very good at, you'll lose.
    Last edited by Dark Horse; 09-01-11 at 05:50 PM.

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