[Lirol]

I'm a newbie to sports betting, but I've utilized the SBR Kelly calculator (at half Kelly) for a few months to do my UFC betting with pretty good results. After cleaning UFC Brazil by winning 7/7 bets, I started wondering if Kelly formula is impacted by "overlapping" singles, doubles or trips, and this is where my probability math trips (pun!) up.

Example:

• Bet 1: single: Fighter A to win in Match 1 - I give this a 60% chance, decimal odds 2.875
• Bet 2: double: Fighter A to win in Match 1 and Fighter B to win in Match 2 - I give this double a 36% chance and it has 5.15 decimal odds

Plugging in these numbers (0.5 Kelly, 2 Independent events) gives me 17.3% of bankroll for the first event, 7.5% to the second event.

Now my question is, would these percentages be different if Bet 2 was instead for Match 2 and Match 3, ie. if it is entirely independent from Bet 1? The reason I'm asking is that if Fighter A loses, I automatically lose both bets. But if those two bets don't overlap, I can lose the single but still win the double. I would imagine this should impact the Kelly results, but I have no idea where to start with those calcs.

Any pointers?

[LT Profits]

You should enter the estimated odds of each of the two matches individually, and Kelly will yield the percentage to place on parlay. Do not enter Double odds as if it is one event.

[Lirol]

You should enter the estimated odds of each of the two matches individually, and Kelly will yield the percentage to place on parlay. Do not enter Double odds as if it is one event.

Not sure I follow. If I enter matches for a double bet in the calculator individually, it will yield payroll fractions which are way too high. The calculator does not take into account the fact that both conditions must be met in a double for it to pay out. I can simulate a double by entering it as one event.

[LT Profits]

Let us assume you have two events that are at 2.875 with a 60% probability, which seems unrealistic but I will use as demonstration.

If you plug those values for both events at half Kelly, calculator says 15.4% straight on both bets plus 3.6% on parlay. If you add a third play, you will see all possible two-team parlays and three-team parlay percentages. There is never an overlap as long as individual legs are real individual plays.

[Lirol]

I don't see an output field for doubles or triples. I'm using the online tool, not the spreadsheet - are those included in the speadsheet?

[LT Profits]

Right below the Calculate button, you should see "Stakes for parlays of size"

Depending on how many events you entered, click on the "2" or the "3" or better yet on "All" to see all parlay %s.

[Lirol]

Oooh those can be clicked They don't look like links on FF 5.0. Saves me a lot of math, thanks so much!

I'd give you points (whatever they are), but the system doesn't allow me to do so.

[LT Profits]

No worries, good luck!

[vyomguy]

correct...do not enter double odds.