08-17-2011 12:19 PM
StevieY
Senior Member
Join Date Aug 2010 Location Kentwood, MI Posts 1,598 Thanks 26 Thanked 1,551 Times in 671 Posts
[quote=Bill the Cop;703627]
Originally Posted by Bill the Cop
Last year was another good year. SS 47, FO/DU 33, FU 3, DO 9 (PO 1 and PU 1).
Last 10 years, SS 461, FO/DU 316, FU 43, DO 89 (FP 5, DP5, PO1, and PU 2)
I do something similar. Home fav 1st half lines that are 5-10 pts away from the 1st half totals are unique plays. I don't go below 5 because any 1st half lines that are something like -21 with a 25 total pretty much tell you the dog has no chance and offensively may really struggle. 5-10 pt differences tell you that the dog at least has a chance to do something and if they do, will probably be in the 1st half before they wear down and quit. I say they are unique because the F/O and D/U combo's happen the most but the best straight plays are Dog and Over. It's almost like a middle. You can lose both plays, but it's rare. When the difference is 5-7, you win both the dog and over 8 times for every time you lose both. For differences of 7.5-10, you win both 7.5 times for every time you lose both. It's pretty simple, the dog scores once in the first half, you are pretty safe, twice and you will probably win both. The dog is 138-100, over is 140-98, the dog/over happened 54 times and they both lost 7 times over the last 9 years. What I like about it is since they appear to be un-correlated, no one really thinks about it. One of them always thrives and it is really hard to lose both plays. You get lines like -23 total 29. For the most part, 24-0, 27-0 is the only "football" score that can beat you. Many times you see 28-7, 27-3. One dog score and it is hard to lose both. Fav goes crazy and leads 31-0 at half and you split. Fav struggles and you split or win both if the dog thrives. I was a little hesitant when I first discovered this but I have played them for the last 6 years and they continue to do fine.
The above is some of the thread, there were others who posted their experiences with this play (all positive) and some "atta Boys", but basically that's it.