Oddsmakers and players underestimate the value of a half-game on season wins futures in the NFL. So, two questions to show this point.
1. A) If a team has a 50% chance of winning each of 16 games, what is the probability that it wins exactly 8 games during the season?
1. B) In the same example, what is your EV betting under 8.5 wins at even money?
The first correct answer to 1A and 1B gets 25 points.
2. A) If a team has a 60% chance of winning each of 8 games, and a 40% chance of winning each of 8 games, what is the probability that it wins exactly 8 games during the season?
2. B) In the same example, what is your EV betting under 8.5 wins at even money?
The first correct answer to 2A and 2B gets 50 points.
The same person cannot win both prizes. You must show your valid methodology (with the correct answer) to win.