[subs]

Hey you guys,


pretty cold start to the season...

just wondering how u guys would go about doing this: for all the different combos and EV, and middling possibilities.

in this situation kelly is just kicking my ass. ganchrow's formulas r just gibberish now which REALLY NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT (hint hint).

does any1 have any resources/advice to help with this. or is there a quick fix or estimate that some of u guys use. i have read somewhere that doing this accurately is going to be a serious challenge, do u agree.? i mean for me there were what, 10 or so teams this 1st week.

i would say i am exactly the opposite of a solver genius but am getting into it.

much appreciated.

[Pancho sanza]

You're problem is accounting for all the possible combinations and overlap of teams.

You can build hedging right into your calculations but its a lot of work to set it up in excel and solver would take forever to run.

I would typically only hedge out when I have 1 game remaining to cash a lot of teasers.

This spreadsheet will work for 3-6 team teasers, you can input up to 7 teams.

I use a more powerful aftermarket solver engine so I'm not sure what answer the standard excel solver will give and how long it will take to solve.

Using the hypothetical inputs in this spreadsheet, it took 3 runs and about 20 seconds to calculate the teaser sets, which came out to $7742 worth of teasers.

If you don't get the same amount, lower your precision, convergence and tolerance settings.

[tomcowley]

Optimal stake was obviously 0. Makes Kelly calculations easy.

[subs]

thanks Pancho - really really appreciate ur help here with this. Actually when i saw your name on the reply i knew that it would be something really smart and helpful. thanks also for the many other positive contributions to the forum.

TOP POSTER



TOM, was funny as hell when u told some dude his optimal post count was 0, lol..... thanks for posting ur work on teasers B4, i have found it helpful as well.

do u mean because of inefficient lines?

[That Foreign Guy]

Poasting to remind myself to download the spreadsheet when I get home.

Maybe if I pay more attention to Kelly the gods will smile upon preseason dogs this week.

Does anyone else subconsciously assume an unknown woman called Kelly is going to be slightly hotter than an unknown woman with most other names? Or am I just a mental?

[LT Profits]

If you don't mind waiting for your money, SMOKING HOT KELLY says to tease Jets +8 tonight with Steelers +8.5 in Reg Season Week 1 for 6.6% of your BR at +100.

[subs]

Hey LT why get ravens now, u think the line will move or kelly'll be on her time of the month?

ummmm no TFG u R clearly mental, but to make u happy i'm sending red hot kelly brook and her big hooters to ur house... don't call the po po i said big Hooters with a H

hope ur well and safe.

[vyomguy]

teasers are very profitable in preseason...lots of wong teaser opportunities.

[LT Profits]

Hey LT why get ravens now, u think the line will move or kelly'll be on her time of the month?

ummmm no TFG u R clearly mental, but to make u happy i'm sending red hot kelly brook and her big hooters to ur house... don't call the po po i said big Hooters with a H

hope ur well and safe.

Sorry, meant STEELERS against Ravens. I fixed it.

Flacco has never beaten Big Ben head-to-head and he won't here either, but that's moot in regards to the teaser. Game should be a nail-biter like most of the times these teams meet.

[That Foreign Guy]

Ignoring the discussion of rigged ass teaser riggedness because I hate them until at least Thursday afternoon (missed a lot of Jets legs because FML).

So nobody else has name-prejudices about women? Like Jo's are generally cool but a bit of an attention whore and a little unbalanced (sample size is 5 so it must be significant).

[subs]

gertrude = bad

layla = smouldering hot, see above for illustration.

as far as Jo goes i always think of the childish saying "Jo Mama" this or that. i call my mother in law Jo when i talk to my wife. like "tell Jo's not to come over so much honey".

but, whenever i see "free themp" now i always think with any purchase above $10. almost pissed myself when i saw u post that

[FreeFall]

on the SS when you say

Run solver to maximize Cell K134 in the calc tab, you'll have to run it mutiple times until it reaches a maximum as the first set of iterations from a starting point of zero is a best guess by excel until the final # is reached

What does that mean? I select the cell in the calc tab and then what am I running multiple times?

[Pancho sanza]

on the SS when you say

Run solver to maximize Cell K134 in the calc tab, you'll have to run it mutiple times until it reaches a maximum as the first set of iterations from a starting point of zero is a best guess by excel until the final # is reached

What does that mean? I select the cell in the calc tab and then what am I running multiple times?

Run Solver from the tools menu.

[luegofuego]

elins are always bipolar