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FV of buying on/off 3 in NFLX?
What is the fair value of buying on or off the 3 in the NFL exhibition games? The lower totals suggest it may be more valuable than in the regular season. On the other hand, teams often go for two at the end to avoid OT--a very serious drawback. So what is the 1/2 pt buy worth on this key # during the pre-season? Any help would be appreciated.
About 13 cents.
Roughly half of the games won by exactly "3" occur in overtime. Most coaches actively avoid overtime situations, such as going for 2 rather than take a 7-point lead, or not kicking a late field goal.
Over the last 601 games (about 10 years), 13, or 2.2% went into OT. Of those, 11 were decided by 3, one by 6, and one 0-0.Originally Posted by Justin7
92 of those 601 games were decided by exactly "3" regardless of the line.
225 (37.4%) went off at "3", of those 17 pushed ATS or 7.6%
Double check your numbers. Only 13 games went to overtime in the last 10 years?
my database has 12 the last 10 years
Last edited by durito; 08-08-11 at 10:50 PM.
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Last edited by durito; 08-08-11 at 10:51 PM. Reason: ...
Believe 3 comes up as the final difference 17% of the time in the NFL-my memory fails me- very -very hard to buy off a 3 now-usually will tack on 3 -1.20 first. It can be done if your a regular customer in Nevada of one of the books-call it - in the name of good customer relations if audit catches the move. Not a regular habit though. gl Lou knows the situation.
I counted 13 in the first 10 weeks of 2010...
Umm. He asked about preseason.
Got the info. from Roxy"s class back in the 80'S--it was in his book also-this 2 pt. thing thru a wrench into the #'s--good job Justin--by the way--what was the most popular final # in 2010 ? thanks-
before i edited my post i suggested you try reading the thread title, but i took it out thinking you first post in this thread made it obvious you knew this was about preseason, but who the **** knows with you.
I don't want to pile on, but you are obviously confused. Whether you were talking about NFLX or regular season, the statement "roughly half of the games won by exactly "3" occur in overtime" is not even close to being accurate. In the regular season 15.9% of all games are decided by 3 points (705 games since 1994), but only 205 of those decided by 3 were in OT. The same pattern occurs in NFLX games (15.3% are decided by 3, etc.). I cut and pasted the following from a post I made last week in another forum.
" Also, you often hear that coaches don't like going into OT preseason, right? Well that's correct, only 2.2%
of NFLX games go into OT, compared to 6.2% of regular season games. As a side note, have you ever
had +3.5 points going into OT and got screwed by the other team scoring a TD? Here's some historical data,
since 1994 there have been 274 OT games, 205 (or 75%) were decided by 3 (or less), and 69 (or 25%) by 6.
You probably won about half of the 6 point games, so going into OT with +3.5 points should cash about 88%
of the time (it just SEEMS like that 12% bites you in the ass more often). Just one more trivia stat, of the 274
OT games, 4 ended 0-0 in OT."
Thanks, Bill. Either I was wrong, or things changed since I did my analysis.
Thanks to everyone for the input. Bill, the stats you provided were most helpful.
Yeah, they earn enough. Make 'em do a 10 week preseason!!
Great to see your posts and info per usual, Bill. Thanks for your insight!
Same here. Some posters don't agree with some of his work, but me I"m all ears when he talks. I consider him one of the best posters on the sports forums, mainly because he is always thinking out of the box to get an edge. Glad to see him here.
You are wrong. There is no possible way your analysis could have been correct at any point in the past.
Hai thremp,
I'm a big fan of yours. Can you give me a shoutout in your blog.
kthxbai
Thanks. I'm a fan of yours as well.
If I ever get shown up by BTC please kill me.
Have you ever seen as many spreads of 3 or half a point off 3 as in NFLX? That means the books don't have a clue. If a line of 3 is sharp, respect that. But if a line of 3 is just a number thrown out there, why respect it? There are easier ways to beat it than buying a half or whole point.
Knowing the value of 3 in NFLX helps me line shop. Take tonight's game for example. At one place, I can get the NY Jets + 2.5 +105, another has +3 -108 and a third out has +3.5 -120. Input from this thread helps make the best choice should I want to bet the Jets.
I think I would take +9.5 -241.
I would too. Sounds like you're hinting at putting them in a 2-team teaser at even odds, which I aleady have done.
Where are you playing them at 2-team Even? I'm stuck playing 4-teamers at +300.
Sportbet (5D), but of course the lines are shaded on teasers--so I can't get 9.5 points. Where can you get the Jets +9.5 -241?
Why would you tease up to +9? A margin of 9 hardly ever happens in the NFL...plus it's not a true Wong....unless you are doing something different for pre-season maybe?
With a juiced +3 you are often getting the 9 for free, while the 9 isn't worth much, it's worth something. And it's irrelevant if something isn't "a true Wong." Wong happened to popularize these teasers, but he certainly isn't the be all and end all of teaser subset analysis.
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