1. #1
    ProphetofProfit
    ProphetofProfit's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-24-11
    Posts: 26

    Pinnacle S*ccer Lines

    I've priced up the opening weekend of the English fixtures and I've noticed that when I plug in the multiple lines and their odds against my percentages, and select whichever maximises expected growth, I'm nearly always choosing the larger handicap or the over 3 goals line. Has anyone else noticed this? My method of converting goals to odds is not in question afaik, a man much more intelligent that I am put it together. My method of estimating team strengths could be called into question, but it probably stands up to most accusations and was profitable during backtesting with p<0.01

    Which reminds me, am I supposed to be using a Chi-squared test statistics to compare a model's ROI to the breakeven ROI?

    So here is what I've churned out this weekend. Some of the edges will spark incredulity, and I'm far from convinced that they are accurate. But hey, this is lower division English football. And the opening day of the season after dozens of John Does have changed teams, so I doubt anyone has an accurate idea right now.

    I can't get the table to show properly so it's "Game Bet Odds p(win) Edge"

    Crawley - Wimbledon H -1 2 0.55 0.10 Crawley - Wimbledon >2.5 1.95 0.56 0.09 Hull - Blackpool H - 3/4 2.64 0.43 0.14 Coventry - Leicester <2 2.71 0.41 0.11 Brighton - Doncaster H -1 2.66 0.49 0.30 Brighton - Doncaster >3 2.77 0.48 0.33 Bristol City - Ipswich >2.25 1.826 0.6 0.10 Burnley - Watford H -1 2.7 0.43 0.16 Burnley - Watford >3 2.34 0.48 0.12 Reading - Millwall H -1 2.76 0.41 0.13 Southampton - Leeds H - 3/4 2.58 0.45 0.16 Southampton - Leeds >3 2.42 0.51 0.23 West Ham - Cardiff >2.25 1.704 0.63 0.07 West Ham - Cardiff H -1 2.64 0.44 0.16 Brentford - Yeovil H -1 2.53 0.65 0.64 Brentford - Yeovil >3 2.91 0.48 0.40 Charlton - Bournemouth H - 3/4 2.48 0.48 0.19 Huddersfield - Bury >3 2.55 0.52 0.33 Huddersfield - Bury H -1 2.38 0.62 0.48 MK Dons - Hartlepool >3 2.84 0.46 0.31 Oldham - Sheffield Utd A :0 1.855 0.58 0.08 Preston - Colchester H -1 2.49 0.45 0.12 Stevenage - Exeter A:0 2.51 0.46 0.15 Tranmere - Chesterfield H:0 1.8 0.6 0.08 Wycombe - Scunthorpe >3 2.77 0.48 0.33 Wycombe - Scunthorpe H-1/2 2.49 0.45 0.12 AFC Wimbledon - Bristol Rovers A:0 2.07 0.57 0.18 Bradford - Aldershot >2.25 2.03 0.53 0.08 Gillingham - Cheltenham H - 1 2.96 0.47 0.39 Gillingham - Cheltenham >3 2.94 0.39 0.15 Macclesfield - Dagenham & Redbridge A:0 1.99 0.58 0.15 Macclesfield - Dagenham & Redbridge <2.5 2.7 0.49 0.32 Morecambe - Barnet >3 2.89 0.43 0.24 Morecambe - Barnet H - 3/4 2.41 0.55 0.33 Northampton - Accrington >3 2.89 0.46 0.33 Northampton - Accrington A:0 3.37 0.37 0.25 Port Vale - Crawley A:0 1.752 0.68 0.19 Southend - Hereford H -1 2.75 0.4 0.10 Swindon - Crewe >3 2.76 0.55 0.52 Swindon - Crewe H -1 3.07 0.43 0.32 Torquay - Burton >3 2.89 0.45 0.30 Torquay - Burton H-1 2.72 0.43 0.17

    As you can see, a ton of -1's and >3's.

  2. #2
    CHUBNUT
    CHUBNUT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-30-09
    Posts: 321
    Betpoints: 7628

    Pricing up games to find an edge at the start of a season is nonsense. All you can do is what I do, price the games up for comparison with the books to see what degree of changes there are without having to do the donkey work yourself.

  3. #3
    Juret
    Update your status
    Juret's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-18-10
    Posts: 113
    Betpoints: 1239

    I'd bet dogs first weekend. Haven't tested it but first gameday always seem to be extra tricky. Newcomers get some early run, teams have new players etc.

Top