[slatter]

I was discussing a football prop with some friends and wanted to try to figure out the math behind it to see who's getting the better end of the deal.

You offer a friend a bet with +100 odds that he can pick 7 teams to miss the NFL playoffs. If all those teams miss the playoffs, you lose. If any of them make it, you win. Assuming the friend will be picking the bottom 7 teams based on Vegas odds, or some close variation (maybe 6 of the bottom teams + a team he hates, for instance), how do you figure out who's getting the better end of the deal?

I spoke to math whiz IrishTim who suggested I "check Pinnacle futures (season wins would be more accurate but harder to convert) to get the no-vig odds of a team making the playoffs. Do this for the 7 bottom teams and see if the probability of one making the playoffs is > 50%."

I went to Pinnacle and started poking around but found myself sort of clueless. Also, Pinny offers divisional winner odds, not necessarily "make the playoffs" odds, so it doesn't figure in the four wildcard spots.

Can someone help me out here? I know how to calculate a vig-free line but honestly feel kinda lost.

[slatter]

To show that I'm not just being lazy, here are the biggest underdogs to win their division from Pinnacle:

AFC East: Buffalo +2331
AFC North: Cincinnati +2200
AFC West: Denver +1267
NFC East: Washington +2024
NFC North: Minnesota +921
NFC South: Carolina +2500
NFC West: Seattle +754

Let's just assume my friend will go to this site and choose those seven teams as his seven teams that will miss the playoffs. Now how do I proceed from here to figure out who's getting the better end of the deal?

[uva3021]

The probability that none of the above teams win their division is 62.03%, to find playoff odds, extract future win totals from pinny then line them up by conference and order them by division winners, then wild card

[That Foreign Guy]

Or find a book that offers "to make / not to make playoff" prices and work from there.

FWIW I offer this bet at +100 where they have to only select 6 teams.

[slatter]

Foreign, thanks. Any idea where I could find a book that does that? And the people I offered the bet to are not big bettors, so I figured I was squeezing a bit of extra value out of it.

[That Foreign Guy]

At least one of the Euro books (bet365 maybe) did to make playoff yes/no betting last year.

One thing to consider when acting as a pseudo-bookie is that you can shear a sheep multiple times but skin him once. You actually don't want to get too much the best of it. I have long term "customers" because they know I'll give them the action they want at a nearly fair price.

I lost my biggest customer for this bet this year since he picked / ran so bad last year that 3 of his 6 teams could have made the playoffs with a win in the last week (and two did so the bet is clearly too hard in his eyes). I am debating giving him small + money on the bet, but then everyone would want it as they mostly all know each other.

[slatter]

I'm actually more nervous that everyone is going to pick six of the same teams with maybe one team different, and that I'll end up getting destroyed.

[That Foreign Guy]

I was discussing this bet with an NFL friend today.

I think we agreed on three obvious choices, and then it gets tricky (I think we had six decent candidates for the last three spots.

Even if everyone takes the same list, you will almost certainly have a team or two with a shot going in to the last three weeks. Bet against them on the ML if you want to (crudely) hedge.

[slatter]

Sounds good, thanks for the tip. In the meantime, I'll dig around and try to find a book that offers that prop. Would make the math easier for me.