[Duff85]

Have finally moved over to using the Kelly Criterion to size my wagers. Math has never been my strong suit but I am getting a little better as I go.

Now i've searched the think tank and other sources but can't seem to find (or don't understand) the answer to this one, so hopefully someone can help.

Due to a number of injuries to the other team, I've found value in both the money line and spread in a game at different books.

The ml is +220, I have the team as a 33.94% chance of winning outright.
the spread is +8.5 (-125), I have the team as a 59.27% chance of covering this.

I'm playing half kelly (super aggressive but I have a small bankroll so I am not overly worried about the risk of ruin).

My question is given that these results are correlated, i'm guessing that my wager size needs to be smaller on both? If I went half kelly on both i'm guessing that i'm overbetting my edge?

Any resources that would help me work these out?

Should clarify that i'm not parlaying these but making straight wagers on each. Every thread so far seems to deal bet sizing when it comes to correlated parlays.

[That Foreign Guy]

Math is hard. Some options I use depending how I am feeling.

Only bet the one that has the bigger EG.

Bet the ML, then bet (half kelly spread bet - ML bet) on the spread.

Bet quarter kelly on each.

Bet half kelly on the spread, bet what you would win on the spread on the ML (so you break if they lose and cover).

[Pancho sanza]

Have finally moved over to using the Kelly Criterion to size my wagers. Math has never been my strong suit but I am getting a little better as I go.

Now i've searched the think tank and other sources but can't seem to find (or don't understand) the answer to this one, so hopefully someone can help.

Due to a number of injuries to the other team, I've found value in both the money line and spread in a game at different books.

The ml is +220, I have the team as a 33.94% chance of winning outright.
the spread is +8.5 (-125), I have the team as a 59.27% chance of covering this.

I'm playing half kelly (super aggressive but I have a small bankroll so I am not overly worried about the risk of ruin).

My question is given that these results are correlated, i'm guessing that my wager size needs to be smaller on both? If I went half kelly on both i'm guessing that i'm overbetting my edge?

Any resources that would help me work these out?

Should clarify that i'm not parlaying these but making straight wagers on each. Every thread so far seems to deal bet sizing when it comes to correlated parlays.

You need to list the relevant outcomes and their probabilities, in this case,

+220 wins +8.5 loses .3394
+220 loses +8.5 wins .2533
+220 loses +8.5 loses .4073

Then set it up in excel to calculate an ending bankroll for all 3 outcomes, your ending bankroll will be starting bankroll , adjusted for full kelly equivalent, + outcome win/loss.

calculate the log of your ending bankroll for all outcomes, sum them, and maximize that # using solver.

[WendysRox]

I don't know if this will help, but I made a little kelly calculator in excel.... And, as I understand your question, it's about how to bet both ML and spread at the same time. As far as I know (and admittedly, that is very little), Kelly Criterion is for independent events, so it will not help you calculate this.


H3 Sports - Kelly Calculator.xls