Originally Posted by
Ominous
I have noticed that there has been quite extreme linemoves on quite a few NCAAB games during the last hour before gamestart, ~~ 2 points on the spread. (On pinnaclesports and matchbook)
I have so far tried to bet these games on offshore books that have not yet implemented the linemove so I get on avarage about 2 points ATS and play with the -110 juice. However, these plays have not gone so well so far even though halfpoint calc indicates 5%+ value.
Also, it seems that the line is more likly to be pushed down (ex. -21.5 -> -23.5) on medium to big favorites.
Discussion: Do you think this linemove caused by dumb money? Pinnacle limits are pretty high after all so I do not think this question is trivial.
An alterantive strategy could be to play the dog(which has had increased spread) right before gamestart on pinnacle or something I guess, or to go only for surebets.