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No I don't post picks online but I'll share my excel sheet here no problem if I can upload it I don't know if you can do it on this forum but I'll see if I can and then people might even like it and can even use it themselves for tracking thier picks.Originally Posted by Peregrine Stoop
And by the way because I know someone here will say it but no I didn't spend a bunch of time to make up an elaborate fake spreadsheet to impress people on a gambling forum.
Heres my sheet it only goes back to june 8th that's when I made a renewed effort to stay 100% discipline and keep accurate records. And I should add I have used this betting style for a long time and these have always been the type of results I've had. I just had some discpline/money management problems. I used to bet a lot of long shot parleys and outrights which never win they just take away any profit from my normal picks and I also had a problem of after a bad day or two I would chase by betting a ton of games in a day and that would just compound the problem worse. So that's why my 2 main rules are no parleys or extra bets and bet a max of 3 games per day if I can stick to those two rules it's all good.
Last edited by Stocks; 07-26-11 at 10:42 AM.
Well lets see your record since june 8th. You do a lot of talking but not much else.since June 8th
By the way for anyone who wants to use my excel spreadsheet for keeping track of your own records just delete the Sports Picks Info and Win Lose info but don't mess with the Records Info as thats all setup to update when you fill in the other stuff.
Stocks, awesome spreadsheet I gotta say I'm convinced. Do you sell your picks by any chance? I'd love to buy them
oh, FFS! come on, please stop 'Stocks' and bullshit touters. 'God1' is ready to fork his money over to this clown. I'd rather him give it to the sportsbook, so they have some to pay out the winnerz
Hey man don't ruin it for me! This guy's a genius I want in
I'll sell my picks. You only have to pay me if you win. If you lose I don't get your money.
Wow that sounds like a sick deal, you must be a winner if you're offering that! What's your general betting philosophy? Stocks is clearly pretty sophisticated. Why do you think you are sharper than Stocks?
LOL -- good one -- so if they hit you earn and if they miss you lose nothing! no risk!
LOL I like how internet conversations go. I only shared how I bet MLB and some of my other general betting philosophy to show there's other ways to win apart from the stuff that seems to be pushed so hard on this site like you need to beat the closing line or you need a successful model to win. If someone can pick winners they can pick winners who gives a shit how they do it.
And about selling picks I know that god is only messing around but for those that might think he's serious no I'm not a tout I don't sell picks, I won't sell picks, I have absolutly no interest in selling picks.
By the way Peregrine did you pay attenion to yesterdays picks that were on the spreadsheet? Another 3-0 day man I sure am glad I don't know anything about betting sports.
I don't really have a general betting philosophy as of yet. I'm still learning. Ultimately, I think I would like to be a number's crunching statistical modeler. I'm working on learning the data scraping part right now and recently downloaded R for statistics.
For MLB my initial strategy for this year was to break the season up into an arbitrary period of months in order to capture season dynamics. (This strategy is based on past betting lines. I believe they are closing lines.) I then looked through the database to see how home/away/dog/favorites did each month. Whatever categories had a nice positive average since 2004 would be the categories that I'd bet on for the whole month. This strategy has averaged 55 units per season since 2004 and so far is up 45 units this season.
I focused on starting pitcher ERA differences last year. I shot up 20 units in 1.75 months and then lost it all within 10 days. I wanted to do more research into that this year. Again I grouped the season into months and looked at various ERA differences. I took the categories that were profitable over the past 4 years. I am holding on so far up 16 units for the season. (It's all documented in the baseball forum) The actual results of this strategy does not compare to "theoretical" results from past seasons that I dig out. I'd win like 30-40 units a month! Datamining I guess
Unfortunately, I did not realize that the lines I were using from statfox were closing lines. This has wreaked havoc with small dogs and small favorites as they have a tendency to switch sides. I've missed some bets and bet on the wrong side because of this. I'd be up ~30 units this season with no mistakes using this strategy.
The last option I have right now for MLB has to do with fading myself. I'd be up ~ 30 units this way as well. Lately, I've been winning though, so we'll just have to see how good fading myself ends up being for the season.
I'm still attracted to heterodox approaches tbh. Like I wonder what DH is really talking about when he mentions small sample sizes. I do think he's talking about normal statistical fluctuations. I'm still new enough to still want to do research into this area. If nothing else I'd find that it really is a ridiculous gambler's approach.
Right on brother that's the kind of attitude I'm looking for. Screw those math geeks! I bet most of them have never hit a baseball in their lives. They can talk about efficient closing lines all they want what matters is results on the field. Sabathia doesn't care or know what the line closed at he just goes out there and wins.
I'm not, name a price and make it reasonable. Will you do a guarantee like inspirited has offered where I only pay you if the bet wins? I also have to say, at first it struck me as a little off to bet run lines if the ML is over -150 but I thought about it and I love the idea of low juice. If you never have me laying more than -150 I'd be thrilled and you seem to be committed to thatAnd about selling picks I know that god is only messing around but for those that might think he's serious no I'm not a tout I don't sell picks, I won't sell picks, I have absolutly no interest in selling picks.
Last edited by God1; 07-28-11 at 05:49 AM.
gtfo. The last thing I want is to buy picks from some guy on his computer using a graphing calculator. How could that possibly have any impact on what goes on on the field? It doesn't. Baseball isn't won in the math lab it's won on the field with sweat and tears. I'll take the guy who understands the real game and picks winners. Stocks, sign me up!!
Am i missing something here?
Move this thread out of the think tank.
God1 should buy picks from BigDaddyQH. That would be a perfect fit.
I would guess it is the win/loss stat. Nothing else really matters, if your not winning.
I have two questions:
- What is the formula for xFIP?
- And for the SIERA Formula......what is PA and PU???
you're in the wrong place
go here --> http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-handicapping/
Go to Fangraphs and look in the Glossary.
this thread is went down hill fast.
fip is fielding independent pitching. essentially it uses K rate, walk rate, homeruns rate. things the pitcher is control of. plays that don't require a fielder to make a play, ergo, the pitching is independent of the fielding.
xfip is the same thing except is uses a league average of flyball to homerun rate instead of the individual pitcher's rate.
i try to read the think tank from time to time to try to pick up on something i might be able to use in my own capping and i always end up reading something morbidly pretentious like this thread, where most of it is people laughing at other people, and very rarely offering any kind of help.
i don't see why this subforum isn't password protected. seems like you guys would get a lot more done if it was actually a "think tank" instead of always railing on everyone else's ideas. i always see the most detailed analyses of how certain players pick their games given by people who aren't "think tank worthy" (whether or not it will work long term is not what i'm getting at here), while very few of you guys ever seem to offer any of your own insights.
How have you not pieced together what this means?
i've pieced together that you're an asshole, and that the think tank is for people with an acute knowledge of statistics and that's about all it's good for. if i thought i knew everything, i'm sure i'd love to have a forum where i could be an asshole too. i'm sure you're all nice people i real life (and i'm being serious), but i guess this isn't really the subforum for me until i go back to school for my math degree.
i just look at final score of the games when each starter threw against the other team. go back 3 years. if the numbers show an edge i play it. if they don't i lay off. system doesn't leave a lot of games to be played. pretty much division games.
the day/night stat matters. it's because some batters see the ball better than others in the daytime. josh hamilton was finally just benched in all day games by rangers because he can't hit in the day. the yankees rule in the daytime for some reason. it's not coincidence, in my opinion. maybe some people are just more athletic at night, i know that i am not so coordinated at night as in the daytime, and maybe a team has more daytime type people, etc.
Lot of good info in this thread thanks for starting it !!!!!!!!!!!!
If there anywhere to find day/night stats? I was looking for this info the other day but I can only find starting pitcher day/night splits on covers.
Josh Hamilton is a unique case because of him having some outlier shade of blue eyes which makes the sun significantly brighter, seriously. Don't try to use one case and extrapolate that to the entire league. day/nights stats are about as relevant as which shirt I put on today
Might as well add one more piece to the arsenal for coin flipping decisions
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