How much is the 1/2 point worth?

[Faceman14]

I have heard that pro sportsbetters would bet a basketball game hard at -12, but not touch it at -11.5. How much is the 1/2 point worth? Some have said each half point is worth about 2%. Obviously there is a difference if it is a football game hovering around a line of 3 or 7. But are there some rules as to what value we can place on the 1/2 point line move?

[NunyaBidness]

I have heard that pro sportsbetters would bet a basketball game hard at -12, but not touch it at -11.5.

That makes no sense.

Use the half point calculator, or make a push chart.

[bearjew]

You should consider that with the half you loose at a "tie" rather than getting a flat number therefor you could also push and get your money back.

[Aaron McCrevice]

First you need lots of data. Determine the standard deviation for margin of victory assuming normal distribution.

That should get you started....

[Faceman14]

I guess this is what I am getting at. A pro might have an NBA game at -12. If he sees the game posted at -12, I would assume that would give him a 50/50 chance of winning. If he sees the line at -11, I am curious what advantage he puts on it. Would betting his team at -11, when it should be -12, give him a 54% chance of wining? more? less? Thanks for your input.

[NunyaBidness]

I guess this is what I am getting at. A pro might have an NBA game at -12. If he sees the game posted at -12, I would assume that would give him a 50/50 chance of winning. If he sees the line at -11, I am curious what advantage he puts on it. Would betting his team at -11, when it should be -12, give him a 54% chance of wining? more? less? Thanks for your input.

As I said, use the half point calculator.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

[ADR51]

Dude the pricing of half a point has nothing to do with what you are asking, completly diffrent things. Besides in my opinion when you buy to flat number the value is grater than when you buy a ½ number.

[Cookie Monster]

I am feeling generous today, so I will give you the answer. A spread half point in basketball is worth about 8 cents. Each point have a slightly different value (and expected total have some effect), but this is a good rule of thumb. It works for CBB and NBA, up a -16 line or so. Value goes down on higher lines (seldom found on NBA anyway). The only exception is NBA -1 line, which is worth just 5 cents.

As a bonus info, a half point in basketball total is worth about 5 cents. So, a total off by 1 full point is close to 0EV at -110.

[Faceman14]

Thank you very much. That was what I was looking for.

[Rich Boy]

Just look at what Pinny is offering for a basketball game when you buy/sell half a point and calculate the win probability from that

[Topo]

Around the 12 mark in basketball, I'd say a half point is worth very little when compared to the 2-7 range. I'll bet a lot of favourites at -5.5 and -6.5 that I would probably avoid at -6.0 or -7.0.

Like advised above, use a push chart.