NBA vs. MLB

[MONEYMUFFINS]

When it comes to predicting a winner within a matchup based on the teams’ raw skill, do you find that picking a spread in NBA is easier to decide than picking a moneyline in MLB?

I find that when one team is “supposed” to win a matchup in MLB, the result often seems random. Whereas with NBA, the team that is “supposed” to win a matchup mostly does. I figured this is because of the nature of each sport. A team in NBA tends to total 100+ points, while a team in MLB only tends to total 5+ points, so therefore NBA will have less surprising results.

I’ve seen a lot of users say that picking random underdogs in MLB is a bad idea. But I find that picking systematically in NBA is more useful than in MLB, at least from the perspective of comparing raw skill within matchups.

True/false?

[Gradius]

Favorites in the NBA on average win more than in the MLB. In the NBA, there are on average 92 possessions per game. With that many possessions, the good teams will separate themselves more from the bad teams (A bad team is more likely to beat a good if there are less "sets" to go through). In the MLB, there are 27 available outs (not including extra inning), which makes it more likely that a bad team could beat a good team. Imagine if there were 92 available outs instead of 27 (We'll say that pitchers have unlimited endurance, in this example), good teams will win more often, due to the more opportunities available.

There are other reasons, such as the NBA being easier to score than in the MLB.

[matthew919]

Outcomes for MLB have higher variance, but "higher variance" does not necessarily equate to "more difficult to beat."

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity. An optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.

[MikeTizzy]

oranges and apples, completely different dynamics.

[hutennis]

Favorites in the NBA on average win more than in the MLB. In the NBA, there are on average 92 possessions per game. With that many possessions, the good teams will separate themselves more from the bad teams (A bad team is more likely to beat a good if there are less "sets" to go through). In the MLB, there are 27 available outs (not including extra inning), which makes it more likely that a bad team could beat a good team. Imagine if there were 92 available outs instead of 27 (We'll say that pitchers have unlimited endurance, in this example), good teams will win more often, due to the more opportunities available.

There are other reasons, such as the NBA being easier to score than in the MLB.

Are you saying that -150/+140 favorite will win more often in NBA than favorite with the same odds in MLB?

[Gradius]

No, I'm saying there are heavier favorites in the NBA than in the MLB. In the NBA, a heavy favorite could be -1000, and even higher than that, whereas in the MLB, a heavy favorite is probably -300. The Tigers/Astros game a couple days ago (pitting one the best teams with one of the best pitchers on the mound, against possibly the worst team in the league) was around -370 for the Tigers. A team like the Miami Heat against the Charlotte Bobcats would probably have a spread (we'll say that Miami is at home) of -18, the ML would be well over -2000.