1. 11-13-08 10:34 AM #1
    Trinidad
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    Determining optimum Kelly variant ???

    Is there a way to do this if you know your long term strike rate, average odds, POT etc...???

    I was using 1/7.5, however, I always planned on lowering it to 1/6 if I reached a certain milestone which I have now reached. I am wondering if this is too aggressive. I do not have the stomach for large swings and would consider sacraficing a small amount of profit to counter this.

    Thoughts?
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  2. 11-13-08 12:48 PM #2
    Justin7
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    You need to know your edge. That is the hardest part of the evaluation. If you knew with certainty what your edge was, you could use full Kelly.

    How have you estimated your edge?
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  3. 11-13-08 01:45 PM #3
    Trinidad
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    You need to know your edge. That is the hardest part of the evaluation. If you knew with certainty what your edge was, you could use full Kelly.

    How have you estimated your edge?
    After around 500 bets I am running at 51% S/R with average odds of $2.09 for a 106.6% ROI.
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