[covertwo]

Preface: The reason I bring this concept up is because I see that RAS is offering free Twitter picks right now (@raspicks)

Objective: Try and turn a profit with as little risk as possible. Not trying to be aggressive, but attempting to secure profit (even if it's very small) with very little risk

Idea: RAS just tweeted that have closing line value of 1.5 average so far (can probably do better on value, especially if you have some outs and can find a better line) What if you placed a one unit bet on their pick, assuming you see the pick in time, and then place a half-unit on the other side.

Reasoning: They have shown to have a long term edge. The picks are free, so initial investment is zero. You hope to middle or win/push a couple picks, and I believe you can turn a (very small) profit without much risk, just because you know they are influencing the market enough.

Counter: Obviously you can just play the picks straight away, but I am debating the merits of someone who is moving the market for FREE and you have access to the selections...

[BlastByou]

good luck man. i would never do this personally though

[FreeFall]

Why are you only putting a half unit on the other side?
What happens if the market moves against you?
This is not conservative at all because you are making false assumptions.

[thompsontw]

I like this idea but I'm not sure it takes in all market moves,
Some of which can be violent

[escoot]

Why are you only putting a half unit on the other side?
What happens if the market moves against you?
This is not conservative at all because you are making false assumptions.

Obviously the market isn't always going to agree. Say the market does long-term then yes?

[FreeFall]

Obviously the market isn't always going to agree. Say the market does long-term then yes?

I have no problem with you refuting my statements, but I do have a problem with your subjectivity. Please explain to me what long-term means and when you say market what market? What do you mean by agree?

[PanamaBrad]

I would just play the RAS picks and enjoy.

[jolmscheid]

Does RAS move lines in wnba like they do other sports too? I wish I could play ras but the lines move so quick and then the value is lost...

[Arilou]

What do you actually believe about the world? Do you think that the first bet has value? The second bet? Both? How big a sample is this line movement claim based on and how good are you at moving orders?

If you can bet early and buy out late and on average make a profit (no letting the moves against you ride or anything, you need to be doing this every time) then by all means do it, and by all means bet half your bankroll on each side of the bet since it's an arbitrage. No reason to hold back; even on bad market moves you're only really risking a few percent. If you also want to be slightly unbalanced in one direction because you believe that's where the value is, you can do that, but obviously that bet has to be very small compared to your main bet. There is no "unit" if you're planning on doing arbitrage, there's only what you think you can buy out of.

The default assumption if RAS lines move and then don't move back is that the initial bet is the good one, and the later bet is a loser, so you'd want to bet as much as possible early, then buy out on all but one unit late. You can scale that unit as you wish.