How large would a market's capacity need to be (limits, in particular pinnacle and exchange liquidity) before chasing steam and betting off market lines is a viable strategy? What is your experience? I'm not referring to any one specific sport. If you believe that you cannot win by beating the closing line in an efficient market please don't post in this thread, thanks.
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Last edited by VLR100; 03-18-13, 03:27 PM. -
This is a damn good question (that I will probably look into), but wouldn't the answer to this question be an extremely valuable betting strategy?
In other words, it is not in one's best interest to publicly post a solution for this problem.Comment -
It is already quite well known that betting off market lines and steam chasing is a valuable strategy.
To rephrase my question, say I give you the chance to bet at -110 what Pinnacle is pricing at -125 (ignore the fundamentals, this is pure technical analysis). However the Pinnacle limit (or whatever other proxy you want to use for market capacity) is only 2k (or 3k, or 4k, or 1k). Do you take it? Is the market efficient enough for you to profit betting it?Comment -
are you looking for some sort of ratio? Or probability that the market is efficient and therefore your off-market bet is profitable?Comment -
My apologies, I was referring to the "market capacity" and how to determine when it's big enough to bet off-market lines, not the general "chasing steam" strategy.
However, I still hold to my statement and believe that knowing the right "market capacity" to justify betting off-market lines is too valuable to post publicly.Comment -
To me, the question is how many times will you let me have a bite at that apple? With a small number of opportunities, one can wager heavier without developing a pattern. If the number of opportunities was large, then a pattern would develop. The stock market is legal and large and you can develop a winning strategy and make million dollar investments without batting an eye or disrupting the market. The sports betting market is hyper-fragmented, parts of which are legal and the majority are not. It is also self-policed as opposed to federally regulated. Being a private market, the book side will be leery of consistent winning patterns and alter the size of the action regardless of the size of the market. Witness the barring of card and shuffle counters at the blackjack table. A sharp illegal book will limit or slow bet players to 1k or less if a consistent winning pattern develops based on steam. Betting is a privilege of sorts, not a right. The stock market doesn't care. Bet or invest in it as much as you want.Comment