Calculating basketball pace

**tto827** · 03-01-13, 01:57 PM

Why would league average have anything to do with it?

I would use example 1 if I had to choose. But this info alone isn't going to get you anywhere, its knowing which team will be able to assert the pace they want, and how the game is likely to be played.

**Gradius** · 03-01-13, 02:59 PM

In Justin7's book (Conquering Risk), he says to use the League average as a comparison whenever you are trying to determine the score or spread. I wanted to know if it applied to the pace factor as well. I understand that teams play at different paces all the time, but I just wanted to get some type of idea on how to calculate an average pace.

**Sawyer** · 03-01-13, 04:10 PM

Also, you can pick every quarter (or half) seperately. Teams' pace changes thru the game. Some teams are more agressive in 1st half, while more defensive/slow pace in 2nd half. Something to consider in live betting..

**Gradius** · 03-01-13, 04:51 PM

Sawyer: I agree, and that is something else that I would like to find (line-ups for specific quarters) I think this would help me a lot when trying to pick quarters/halves/live. I remember RSigley said that when Phil Jackson was coaching the Lakers, Kobe Bryant would sit out most of the 2nd quarter, and the Lakers in the 2nd-quarter went 11-65-6 on the Over/Under. I've been looking at play-by-play for some teams, and that is something that I am going to try and put more focus in.

**JR007** · 03-02-13, 07:25 PM

www.kenpom.com

**hugh613** · 03-02-13, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by Gradius

When calculating basketball pace, do I use the average of the 2 teams, or do I take the league average as a base and compare those 2 teams to the league average?

Example 1:

New York Knicks Pace: 90.4
Washington Wizards Pace: 92.2

Expected pace of the game: (92.2 + 90.4)/2 = 91.3

Example 2:

New York Knicks Pace: 90.4 (98.4% of LgAvg)
Washington Wizards Pace: 92.2 (100.3% of LgAvg)
League Average Pace: 91.9

Expected pace of the game: (0.984 x 1.003) x 91.9 = 90.7

I believe the basic formula Ken Pom uses is:

(Knicks Pace / League Average Pace) * (Wizards Pace / League Average Pace) * League Average Pace = Predicted Pace

(90.4/91.9) * (92.2./91.9) * 91.9 = 90.7

**hugh613** · 03-02-13, 08:19 PM

Another good resource to use (if 'pace' is a little too abstract) would be 82games.com so you can get a gauge of how many shots you might get per minute: a Rockets game you might get from 4 to 6 on average, a Nets game you might get 3 to 4 on average.

Houston Rockets

Shot Clock Usage

	Offense				Defense
Secs.	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts
0-10	43%	.548	56%	39.5	36%	.557	52%	34.6
11-15	27%	.537	65%	23.8	25%	.505	59%	21.5
16-20	19%	.494	65%	15.3	23%	.492	65%	19.5
21+	11%	.474	64%	9.0	15%	.417	57%	10.9

Brooklyn Nets

Shot Clock Usage

	Offense				Defense
Secs.	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts	Att.	eFG%	Ast	Pts
0-10	34%	.536	52%	29.3	38%	.540	53%	32.7
11-15	23%	.498	64%	18.4	26%	.492	61%	20.7
16-20	24%	.456	59%	17.7	22%	.480	63%	16.7
21+	18%	.434	56%	12.4	15%	.475	56%	11.3

**million2one** · 03-04-13, 08:03 AM

I just average the two together.
A question I have been considering is why is a teams number for pace different from the average number of possessions for that team. I know pace is an estimate for 48 minutes but what would be the better number to use when you are building your model?

**Gradius** · 03-04-13, 04:34 PM

Thanks for the information, Hugh and JR007. I really like the adjusted pace factor that KenPom uses.

**JR007** · 04-02-13, 07:14 PM

good luck dude

**nicichiro3** · 04-06-13, 09:10 AM

Gradius,

Have you considered looking at pace for two teams versus in game pace results, and regressing them to come up with an optimal weighting rather than just assuming its 1 to 1 in an average? This will give you the effect of determining which team controls the pace. The easiest is to look at this from a home and away standpoint, but you can expand to lots of different splits depending on the amount of data that you have.

Thanks,

Nicichiro

**Gradius** · 04-08-13, 11:55 PM

nicichiro3: Here are some splits I am thinking of:

1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
1st Half
2nd Half
Home
Away
Back-to-Back (Home)
Back-to-Back (Road)
Specific Pace for point guards

Are there more that you think I should include?

**nicichiro3** · 04-09-13, 08:19 PM

Hey Gradius:

I think those are great splits to get. I think you have averages for each team for each of those particular splits then you can compare versus actual in game results.

I would be most interested in what you could find on which teams are able to control the pace on the road, or better yet, which road teams disrupt the pace more, better odds on road teams(for the most part).

Pace for point guards might be more difficult but again could help to point out certain matchups for instance when PG A is playing at home against an equally dominant PG B who controls the game? by how versus their averages?

**bowski44** · 11-29-13, 12:39 AM

Which stat is the adjusted pace on Kenpom.com? All I see are a bunch of acronyms I don't understand.

**DeadRed** · 11-29-13, 11:41 AM

Hello Everyone, I am pretty new to Basketball Betting but I am getting very interested in it. Is Pace the same as possessions per game? Last year I built a spreadsheet for March Madness before I really read anything and calculated something similar. Basically I looked at how many of each type of shot Team A takes (times shooting percentage) and average it with how many of those shots Team B allows (times shooting percentage allowed) and then factor that into possessions per game adjusted for turnovers, etc. I'm trying to take my ideas and improve them based on what else is out there but I'm still pretty green on the whole thing.

Thank you.

Red