[clairvoyance]

Thus far, for the first season in many years it has not been profitable to blindly bet MLB home underdogs. The average line was mostly stable for the last 5 years around +128 to +130 and this year has been averaging +122. Does this have anything to do with the significantly lower totals this year? Overall home teams are down to an an average of -127 but thats not as significant a change as the home underdog lines.

The only explantation seems to be the market has come around. It seems unusual for such a sharp, quick turnaround in betting patterns that were long established but I guess it must be the case. And please don't just say the books adjusted for this exact reason. That is ludicrous as it would've been done years ago as this edge has been out there for years

[Vondy]

This kind of system only works in betting NFL

[clairvoyance]

This kind of system only works in betting NFL

except for the last 7 years over a 4000+ game sample

[BrigadierPudding]

I haven't been tracking. Exactly how bad has it been thus far?

[clairvoyance]

-3.7% ROI through 180 games. the sample is small but the lines have been adjusted by about 8 cents so its been "fixed"

[MonkeyF0cker]

except for the last 7 years over a 4000+ game sample

Huh? 4000 games? Over 7 years? That's not even 2 full seasons of games.

[clairvoyance]

Huh? 4000 games? Over 7 years? That's not even 2 full seasons of games.

it's home underdogs only. or are you trying to say 4000 games isn't enough of a sample size? has anyone ever seen such a rapid market adjustment like this?

[bztips]

I just did a quick check since 2008 and did not find avg lines for home dogs anywhere near the 130 range.
2008 - 122.6
2009 - 125.1
2010 - 126.7

These lines are from Covers, which are supposed to be Pinny closers.

[clairvoyance]

i was using the database and noticed a search error on my part but still got 128 for 2010, 122 for 2009, 121 for 2008...2011 at 118.

where on covers were you able to find that? i looked but couldn't find anything

[skrtelfan]

Covers has line info for all teams so I imagine he extracted the lines and summed the results himself.

[bztips]

Covers has line info for all teams so I imagine he extracted the lines and summed the results himself.

Yes, this.

FYI there's still the edge blindly betting home dog as you described, even with the lower odds (although virtually zero in 2009). And of course that's assuming bets at the Pinny CL.

[jolmscheid]

According to SportsDatabase, the HOME DOGS are down $50 so far this season using $100 units...(225 games)

[jolmscheid]

I also think that HOME DOGS in MLB is still going to have an edge...I wonder if this is also the case in NHL? According to SportsDatabase, betting home dogs in basketball and football are not profitable..

[clairvoyance]

I also think that HOME DOGS in MLB is still going to have an edge...

what leads you to make this assumption? the avg home underdog is alot more expensive so far this year

FYI there's still the edge blindly betting home dog as you described, even with the lower odds (although virtually zero in 2009). And of course that's assuming bets at the Pinny CL.

i've always used sbrodds to find pinnacle open/close but they're unreliable for the open. where on covers can i find pinnacle lines? i looked and didn't see a column for pinnacle. thx in advance

[evo34]

it's home underdogs only. or are you trying to say 4000 games isn't enough of a sample size? has anyone ever seen such a rapid market adjustment like this?

How rapid exactly has the change been? I.e., has the edge eroded gradually over the past five years, or was it very steady through 2010?

[clairvoyance]

How rapid exactly has the change been? I.e., has the edge eroded gradually over the past five years, or was it very steady through 2010?

2010 was a considerable edge around 4% ROI, 2009 was very slightly negative(only year no edge in the past 7), and before 2009 it would be higher one year, then lower the next, then higher again but all with ROIs in the +1.5-3% range.

2011 so far has a barely negative ROI but the home dog avg line has dropped by 10 cents from 2010 and its the lowest its been in 8 years(about +118), no other year was below +122. i'm using the database so the lines aren't exact pinny closing but i would imagine the discrepancies are pretty close to evening out over such a large sample

[skrtelfan]

i've always used sbrodds to find pinnacle open/close but they're unreliable for the open. where on covers can i find pinnacle lines? i looked and didn't see a column for pinnacle. thx in advance

They use Pinnacle's closers as their default lines in the archive, i.e. if under White Sox it says the White Sox were +108 on 5/3/09, that was Pinnacle's closer that day. I don't think they have openers listed anywhere though.

[jolmscheid]

what leads you to make this assumption? the avg home underdog is alot more expensive so far this year



i've always used sbrodds to find pinnacle open/close but they're unreliable for the open. where on covers can i find pinnacle lines? i looked and didn't see a column for pinnacle. thx in advance

I think with baseball being a game that really can go either way, when you get + odds on a team playing at home, I think that is somewhat of an edge right there...it has shown to be profitable the past 7 out of 8 seasons...but maybe you are right...maybe the books have adjusted.....I think playing the home dogs on the +1 RL when the odds are greater than +150 could save some 1-Run losses and still be getting + odds...

I would like to see how NHL Home dogs have done...of course not nearly as many plays though...

[Inspirited]

home teams in general seem to be struggling these past two months.

[smoke a bowl]

My gut says it's a sample size issue and the avg home dog price will be higher by the end of the year.

[mebaran]

Not seeing many home dogs outside of Pinny or 5dimes...seems like books know now.

[smoke a bowl]

Could also be a case of more parity this year as well. Thru 60ish games so far this year only 2 teams are more than 10 games over .500 and only 3 teams are more than 10 games under .500.

[mr.ed]

It has to be the parity which are driving home dog prices down. No really great teams and no really bad teams so you are going to get a lot of games close to pick'um. Prior years you would get a lot of +170 home dogs when NYY or a Boston would play weak teams on road. Not the case this year.

Also, scoring is down this year, and lower totals will prevent numbers for home dogs getting too high.

[clairvoyance]

It has to be the parity which are driving home dog prices down. No really great teams and no really bad teams so you are going to get a lot of games close to pick'um.

this was my first thought but overall home lines remain nearly unchanged around -127 so that should negate that theory

Also, scoring is down this year, and lower totals will prevent numbers for home dogs getting too high.

also was a thought but this should have an overall effect if it was the case not just on the home dog subset