I saw this on the SBR sportsbook NFL futures prices
Superbowl
Chicago +2800
Detroit +3500
NFC championship
Chicago +1500
Detroit +1200
NFC North
Chicago +450
Detroit +450
Either
a) the prices are all correct in that the bears are less likely to win the championship than the lions although they are much more likely to win the superbowl and they are equally likely to win the division. This could reflect a non-linear ranking of the teams.
or
b) two of these three prices are wrong and can be possibly be taken advantage of.
Now possibility a) could be correct as the teams do have slightly different schedules and if the bears have an easier schedule this could account for them being more likely to win the division then their nfc odds suggest. Although looking at the schedules, 14 of 16 games are the same, with the lions playing Dallas and SF while the bears play the eagles and seahawks so the bears on paper have a harder schedule. (playing the winers of the NFC east and west rather than the 3rd place teams). Also the bears could be much better against AFC teams than the Lions and so would be more favoured in the superbowl. Possibly weather and scheduling could play a role depending when the bears play particular teams in the cold of a chicago winter but I think this is unlikely.
So if b) is the correct answer how could you take advantage of this discrepency.
Options are
1)the superbowl odds are correct (bears better than lions) in which case the bears NFC odds look attractive as do their nfc north odds
2)the NFC odds are correct (lions better than bears) in which case the lions superbowl odds are amazing and their nfc north odds look good as well
3) The divisonal odds are correct(both teams equal) in which case the bears in the nfc and the lions in the superbowl are worth a look.
As a general principle what is the best way to analyse and exploit this type of discrepency between odds that are derivatives of each other?