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Pricing "TBL@BOS go to OT"
Using the market odds for tonight's game TBL@BOS for 60 min, on average the teams should score:
TBL 2.425
BOS 2.80
Using a Poisson Distribution I get the fair odds for the game to not be tied after 60 min (that is, not to go to overtime) to be 1.215 but Pinnacle has it at 1.294 (possible edge of 6.5 %). Do you think this difference is a real edge or does it correctly (?) price in a possible fact of the two teams "playing for the draw" should the game be tied close to the end of the 3rd period?
Last edited by Juret; 05-23-11 at 03:32 PM.
I'm sure teams play more aggressive late in regular season games than they do late in playoff games but 6.5% feels like a mighty big adjustment.
Regular season games are more likely to go to OT.
In a regular season gaem, teams are more likely to play for OT in a game thats tied late 3rd period since OT guarantees at least 1 point.
awful methodology
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