Originally Posted by
Blax0r
I'll give this a shot.
First let's convert those ML's to win probabilities. I'll do this for the Bull's series price:
Game 1: 150/250 = .6
Game 1: 140/240 = .583
Game 1: 100/320 = .3125
Game 1: 100/300 = .33
Game 1: 150/250 = .6
Game 1: 100/320 = .3125
Game 1: 150/250 = .6
So we need to find the p(bulls win 4 games). Showing the work to get the series price is too much; I'll start the pattern, and probably you'll see what I'm doing. Let's break this down by possible exact series scores:
4 - 0 = p(game 1,2,3,4 win) = .03646
4 - 1 = p(game 1,2,3 win and game 4 loss) + p(game 1,2,4 win and game 3 loss) + and so on. Multiple the resulting sum of this by p(game 5 win) + p(game 5 loss and game 6 win) + p(game 5,6 loss and game 7 win).
... and so on for 4-2 and 4-3.
Add up all of the percentages.
I got ~35%, which is about +183. Could others double-check?