Does anyone know what a half point is worth in college hoops for a 2nd half? I know it's worth about 8 cents for a full game, so I would venture to guess is worth about 12 cents for a half, but can someone with knowledge confirm?
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Probably best to use a database query to solve for this. The total comes into play etc.Comment -
Yep, have that and calculated all of the push percentages. What is the next step?Comment -
Justin has it all laid out in his book, worth the read. I bet if you searched the forum, you'd find a few threads that already have it all laid out for you too. In so many words... you find out the percent increase in your win pct by benefiting from an additional half point, and use that to dictate the fair price (win pct to ML conversion, basically).
The difference between the standard price (vigless its +100, rather than -110) and your new price is how much it is worth. You'll have to work with vigless numbers to figure it all out. The value can vary with the projected total. It also might be more valuable for certain numbers (e.g. on and off of 3 in NFL).
You'll get thereComment -
I'm sure someone will chime in to knit-pick at the very qualitative explanation above, and that's fine. They can take the time to quantify it all.Comment -
each point is not worth the same for full-game and the same applies for 2h
ex: underdog of +6 is leading 32-30 at the half and the 2h line is anywhere from +4 to +5
the 2h line is hovering around the number 2 and 3. Those are "keyish" numbers in CBB that will most likely have 10+cents of half point value for 2h, especially in games with a low scoring mid 60's projected 2h total. As you stated the value differs from the standard 8-9cents full game half-point.Last edited by BeardedTaco; 12-16-12, 01:55 AM.Comment
