[Spaghettiball]

This may be a reach, but I'd love to hear others thoughts on this.

Underdogs:
Let's say you play on a 'live' dog at plus 3'. At 1/2, they're winning by 3 or less; they may even be losing. The point is that the 'live dog' isn't covering the game spread at 1/2.
Now if the 'live dog' has a better FG % at 1/2, PLAY ON the dog in 2nd 1/2.

Only catch is...what determines a 'live dog?' What if you're on the wrong side to begin with?
I like the idea, but obviously needs more work/paramaters...

What do you guys think?

[Peregrine Stoop]

backtest it and find out for yourself
then, don't share the pot-o-gold

[Spaghettiball]

I worded the damn thing wrong, but I think you get the idea...

[Spaghettiball]

backtest it and find out for yourself
then, don't share the pot-o-gold

Peregrine, right on, I would, just no time at the moment. Something for next year perhaps.

[Peregrine Stoop]

too late,,, you've given it to the community,,, you gunna get raped

[TheMoneyShot]

LOL I don't care if you're betting 1st Quarter, Halves, 3rd 4th Quarters... Games... LOL The favorite is taking it hard core. Favorite is getting murdered. It's like all of these games are scripted. Just my 2 cents. The only consistent favorite so far is Miami -5 twice... but also everyone and their brothers were on Boston +... so again... you're thinking too deep. Just pick an underdog and let it fly. No system is really working except the underdog system in the NBA playoffs.

[dvsbmx]

too late,,, you've given it to the community,,, you gunna get raped

So, in other words, this works?

[Peregrine Stoop]

So, in other words, this works?

Do a backtest and find out

[goucla]

i think it dosent hit over a long period of time

[Spaghettiball]

i think it dosent hit over a long period of time

You THINK it doesn't or you ran the numbers & you can PROVIDE data?

[EasyHustlin]

I'm not sure I even understand what you're talking about. I would need an example.

[AikenJ]

I think he's saying if the dog is winning at half and it has a +x for its spread and has a good FG% then you should re-bet on them SU at half? I have no idea.

[Borat38]

^reacting to Post #12: First, define what a good FG% is. Does a FG% better than the opponent's immediately fall into that definition, or should there be, say, 45% FG? But I think the op was asking what constitutes a live dog, specifically.

My own way of playing it is if a dog is winning at the half (regardless of whether it covered game line or not) and it's still given a plus that is more than half of game spread for 2H, then I'd say the books are expecting the dog to get hammered after halftime, or at least a comeback by the fave, so for me it's either a wager on the fave ATS or stay off. Matchups figure into my decision, so the choice really varies from game to game.

[SparJMU]

I backtested this theory and it is exactly 50% over the last 6 years. Can't believe I wasted an hour of my time writing excel formulas.

[Peregrine Stoop]

^reacting to Post #12: First, define what a good FG% is. Does a FG% better than the opponent's immediately fall into that definition, or should there be, say, 45% FG? But I think the op was asking what constitutes a live dog, specifically. My own way of playing it is if a dog is winning at the half (regardless of whether it covered game line or not) and it's still given a plus that is more than half of game spread for 2H, then I'd say the books are expecting the dog to get hammered after halftime, or at least a comeback by the fave, so for me it's either a wager on the fave ATS or stay off. Matchups figure into my decision, so the choice really varies from game to game.

reversion to the mean is strong here