1. #1
    BettingWizard
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    Bet Runline on Road Favs, ML on Road Dogs?

    There's a common perception, in some circles, that it is better value to take a Runline -1.5 on a road team, because 80% of the time, the road team wins by 2+, if they do end up winning.


    However, I think this is only smart to do with the Favorites. 2 Reasons why.


    1. The favorite is more likely to be a part of the group that wins 80% of the time. I would bet that if you take dogs out of the equation, it is probably 85%, or slightly more.

    2. Example: A team is -130 on the ML, but +120 on the RL. They lose outright. You lose 100 instead of 130. This helps offset the times they do only win by 1 run.



    Why I think it is smarter to bet the Dog ML instead of the Alternate Runline.

    1. Like I said before, A dog team is more likely to be a part of the 20% of games that the road team wins by one. They are just less likely to blow out a team compared to the favorites.

    2. You are already getting Plus Money, so why get greedy? Example: +130 ML vs +180 ALT -1.5.

    In this example, a one run win is a negative $230 swing for a $100 bettor

    ML bettors +130

    ALT line bettor -100


    Any arguments?

  2. #2
    rfr3sh
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    80% of the time they win by 2+ eh

  3. #3
    kingchunny
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    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post
    80% of the time they win by 2+ eh
    My sentiments exactly

  4. #4
    Insoluble
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    Where are you getting 80% from? The books have done better math than you're giving them credit for.

  5. #5
    BettingWizard
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    well according to this it is 77.4% total and and practically no difference between the % rate of dog and favs winning by one run, on the road.

    http://www.24-7wagering.com/BASEBALL...-Baseball.html

  6. #6
    Inspirited
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    on RL
    HD - 1.9% ROI
    HF - 1.2% ROI
    AD -3.0% ROI
    AF -3.2% ROI

    on ML
    HD +1.9% ROI
    HF -2.0% ROI
    AD -2.4% ROI
    AF -5.0% ROI

    HD on ML
    HF on RL
    AD on ML
    AF on RL

    overall

    F on RL
    D on ML

  7. #7
    trevlyn1983
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    I ahve for this season a Road Favorite wins by 2+ 13.25% of the time .

  8. #8
    LegitBet
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevlyn1983 View Post
    I ahve for this season a Road Favorite wins by 2+ 13.25% of the time .
    The OPs distinction Is an important one. That IF the road fav wins, it's likely to be by 2 or more.
    Thoughts?

  9. #9
    trevlyn1983
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    My Bad .. I have if the away team wins and is the favorite, they cover the 1.5 , 83% of the time this year .

  10. #10
    immy5150
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    bookies know this, no secret, so they do adjust accordingly when they feel the need and it is called for...just sayin

  11. #11
    bztips
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    Regardless of whether it's 80% or 85% or something else, OP's entire argument is bogus because it's not based on EV, (ie, his method doesn't even consider what the specific line is). Frankly, it's a "system" that doesn't belong in the Tank.

  12. #12
    wtt0315
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    you lose a half inning in some of the cases taking run line on home team if they are up by 1 at middle of ninth

  13. #13
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
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    OP, i agree here pal

  14. #14
    Salmon Steak
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    If you are a real wizard just use magic to win the games.

  15. #15
    Philphan
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    Where are you getting this 80% number from?

  16. #16
    BettingWizard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philphan View Post
    Where are you getting this 80% number from?
    It's actually 77.4%

  17. #17
    thefonzo
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    I'm an idiot, so let me try to get this straight. If a road team is favored and wins, they cover the -1.5 line three-fourths of the time?

    So being an idiot, I'm going to go ahead and bet the road fave on the -1.5 and the dog on the money line. My guess is I'll win, hypothetically, $5 three times, and then lose $16 once, so it's not profitable.

  18. #18
    trevlyn1983
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    Of all the games this year i only have the away favorite winning only 16.37% of the time .. not counting today .

  19. #19
    goblue12
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    No "Systems" in the Think Tank please

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.

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