[rfr3sh]

I like betting proline sometimes because they offer a tie option for baseball
basically either team can win but only by 1
i used to pick games with low totals and where the +1.5 runline was very juicy, works well

but i was just curious, how would you calculate the fair price for this?

[Blax0r]

Interesting prop; although pricing it isn't too direct w/o the "reverse runline" (not sure what else to call it), where the dog is (-1.5).

a quick and dirty lower bound would be to take the odds of this quasi-middle bet:

-figure out allocations for a bet on dog runline and fav moneyline such that the payout's the same if exactly one bet wins (should be less than your total bet)
-take your total bet amount and subtract from it your payout if exactly one of the bets wins; this is effectively your amount risked
-double the payout (when both bets win) and subtract it from your total bet; this is your effective payout

effective payout/effective amount risked is essentially a lower bound since (in theory i suppose) this middle bet should always be priced lower than the proline (because its outcome is a subset of the proline's).

[Blax0r]

you could also try divining the probability of abs(scoreA - scoreB) = 1 and stick it into the EV equation.

[Pancho sanza]

Take each sides win probabilty using the moneyline, subtract the wins > 1 run.

You calculate the > 1 run wins using the runlines/alt runlines.

Go with pinnacle for all prices.

If this is Proline in Ontario, add about 2 extra "ties" since games that go to extra innings are considered ties, even when one team wins by > 1.