What considerations should I take into account when looking to model NBA quarters for spread and for total as opposed to football quarters?
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1q + 2q = 1h
3q + 4q = 2h
1h + 2h = fg
so just solve for what you need.Comment -
Average previous scores from previous seasons with the players from their respective teams and then consider all off season trades and factor that into the integral of the equation then solve for P(x)
repeat after each day of NBA season for best resultsComment -
what is the total in NBA based off of for 1st q and 1st half? it seems like there is some other factor going on here but i am confused about what it is if i could get a direction will appreciate it a lot.Comment -
Totals are based strictly on game PACE
let me define this clearly for you
A) Shots per minute.
B) Average turnovers per 12 minutes.
C) Average ft attempts per 12 minutes
D) Average Fouls per 12 minutes
E) Average offensive rebounds per 12 minutes
now...
1q is different than 1h because for the first half you can apply the same figures you use for the game and divide them.
The quarter is different. You cannot divide here for 12 minutes because the rotations are different.
It's tough to account for pace of 1 quarter if you replace say strictly an offense player (like a Jamal Crawford--who will do most of his damage in the second quarter) for a defensive player.
It's all in the rotation. So for example. Let's take say the Jazz for example. With Mo Williams in the starting lineup, you calculate pace based on the numbers I gave you. Then you calculate Pace when Jamal Tinsley enters the game. In all likelihood, the pace is slower for Tinsley, leading to less points most of the time.
It's very tricky to build these models. BUT.....most of pace has to deal with PG play. You need to monitor these guys, know the exactly, or close to, rotations (i.e. when they enter the game), and then you can build a successful model for totals.
I just keep most of that info in my head.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
gotta be deep with the analysis
like 5 years ago the lakers would rest kobe in the 2nd quarter of every game. they had no one else and lakers went 11-65-6 in 2nd q spread bc bookmakers would just tomg and do 1q+2q+3q+4q=fg
that was a good yearComment -
ah thank you goat milk that is very interesting. that explains why i can't model derivative totals in a generalized way because it appears some teams will behave differently in different quarters. i guess in football teams always have same rotations and dont change much quarter to quarter.
one question i have after a first read through of your post, why bother with points A, B, C, D, and E, it seems like A is a function of B, C, D, and E, and that you could just use A?Comment -
edit: i guess i am still missing something though. your logic implies that derivative spreads should be affected just as much, or even more than derivative totals. yet when i backtest spreads i get reasonable result, and when i backtest totals i get weird and negative results. so i am still missing something?Comment -
not sure why you are having trouble. this is totals for the year so far, assuming you started with 3gs. you really missing out on that free money bro
NBA First Quarter:
29-21-2(22575.061582267)
Total Wagered: 20638.200331448
Amount Won: 3575.0615822668
ROI: 0.17322545206712
NBA Second Quarter:
18-16-1(19825.0311)
Total Wagered: 11943.973000375
Amount Won: 825.0311
ROI: 0.069075097538658
NBA.NBA Third Quarter (FG):
28-22-1(20473.476222099)
Total Wagered: 22452.116392346
Amount Won: 1473.4762220995
ROI: 0.065627497931633
NBA.NBA Fourth Quarter (FG):
22-25-1(17167.407398075)
Total Wagered: 16175.873503065
Amount Won: -1832.5926019249
ROI: -0.11329172434352
1H:
33-26-1(20848.999964524)
Total Wagered: 20083.108733016
Amount Won: 1848.9999645238
ROI: 0.092067417903486
2H:
32-35-0(18890.803163502)
Total Wagered: 29797.917413087
Amount Won: -109.19683649789
ROI: -0.0036645794732596Comment -
rsigley how do you model your NBA totals that you are betting there?Comment -
goat milk?Comment -
goatmilk i tried transferring you 60 points but SBR won't let me?
what do you model? FG NBA totals? purely derivatives? how much do you bet per unit?Comment -
The full game total includes over time. The quarters totals do not include over time. So you still need to factor that in.Comment -
339955 we killing ncaab over on 2p2 where you atComment -
teacher, i can't copy your bets because in the past you have given out the opposite sides to bets you actually take. i'd like to bet NCAAB myself but when i model spreads for NCAAB 1st half i don't see any value, and when i model totals for 1st half i get bad bets, and i don't know how to even begin modeling full game totals.Comment -
we are up 17 units in 3 days how can it be fakeComment -
i want to make $5,000,000, if i am gonna get there i need your help to show me what i need to learn next.Comment -
added another 7.65 units yesterday and on unposted 2h total derviatives was another 10 or so
dunno why you aren't smart enough to figure it outComment -
rsigley im not smart or creative, i just gets ideas from you and then try to go with them.Comment -
are those rsigley's quarters bets records? and whats with all the digits?Comment
